Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening

Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  US disinflation will be the key focus as CPI and PPI is released, but dollar dips could continue to find buyers amid US exceptionalism and carry advantages. Japanese yen risks touching 150, and risks of verbal intervention could make traders cautious around these levels. Meanwhile, a plethora of UK data and ECB speakers could steer focus towards bringing rate cut expectations forward for their central banks.


NZD outperformed last week as rate hike bets jumped, but slowing inflation expectations could erase the move this week. Meanwhile, Swiss franc is weakening on the back of expected SNB selling and inflation report could be key.
Our FX Scorecard shows sharp negative momentum in CHF and JPY, and momentum shifting negative for NZD, EUR as well as CAD and GBP.
Forex COT to the week of Feb 6 saw dollar shorts being erased as EUR net long touched its lowest levels since October 2022. Shorts were also added to AUD, CAD and CHF.

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