Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Technical picture and levels in this article: EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP and EURJPY
EURAUD seems to be forming a rising wedge like formation. Rejected at the 200 daily SMA it is close to test the lower rising trend line. A break below some support at around 1.50 but not unlikely to drop to around 1.4750.
For upside to resume a break above 1.54 is needed.
EURCAD has broken key support at 1.3390. No strong support before around 1.3025.
EURCHF saying goodbye to parity moving lower. Down trend seems to be accelerating with no strong support to be seen. We are back in the 2015 territory, when SNB abandoned the floor and if that range is a guide EURCHF could drop to its lowest level back then i.e. around 0.90.
EURCHF has formed a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like formation over the past 8 years since the collapse. Taking the distance from the Neckline to the Head and subtracting it from the breakout price indicates a price around 0.90 (indicated by the two horizontal arrows)
EURGBP is trading in a wide rising channel moving close to test the lower trend line. If broken there is downside risk to around 0.8450-0.8440.
Strong resistance at 0.8720
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.