RBA playbook: Another rate hike, but can AUD keep climbing?
Schedule: Tuesday, 3 November | 11:30am SGT
What is expected? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise rates by 25bps to 4.85%, following stronger-than-expected Q3 inflation and rising energy prices.
The key question is whether the RBA signals another hike could follow, or whether weaker labour-market conditions and slowing growth will eventually limit tightening.
Three scenarios for AUD traders
RBA outcome | AUD/USD | AUD/NZD |
Hawkish hike: Signals further tightening | Break above 0.7065 could target 0.7107–0.7157 | Retest 1.2603; potential extension above |
Hike + cautious guidance: Inflation high but growth weakening | Could remain capped at 0.7058–0.7065 | Profit-taking towards 1.2346 |
Surprise hold / dovish guidance | Below 0.6975 opens 0.6894 | Deeper correction towards 1.2208 |
Key levels and positioning
AUD/USD has recovered from October lows but is struggling around its 100-day moving average at 0.7032. Resistance is clustered at 0.7058–0.7065, near the 200-day and 50-day averages.
Trade bias: A sustained break above 0.7065 would strengthen the bullish case. Otherwise, hawkish RBA news could be an opportunity for profit-taking, particularly if the US dollar remains firm.

AUD/NZD remains in a strong uptrend, trading above its 50-day (1.2346), 100-day (1.2208) and 200-day (1.2111) moving averages.
Trade bias: The policy divergence still favours AUD, but with the cross near its recent 1.2603 high, chasing upside carries greater risk. A pullback towards 1.2346 could offer a more attractive entry if the RBA remains hawkish.

Bottom line
The RBA hike may be expected, but another hawkish surprise is not guaranteed.
For traders, AUD/USD offers a potential breakout above 0.7065, while AUD/NZD remains the stronger relative-policy trade but faces profit-taking risk near 1.26.
Watch the RBA's inflation forecasts, labour-market projections and language around further tightening. A hike alone may not be enough to sustain AUD gains.