FXO Market Update - EURHUF universe on the highs
Summary: NBH hiked as expected with 50bps earlier this week and with a statement that was on the hawkish side. EURHUF spot and vols little changed on the highs. Risk reversals and carry also on the highs which makes EURHUF calls rich.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these.
Hungary hiked as expected with 50bps on Tuesday, slowing down from 100bps hikes in the previous meetings. The statement was on the hawkish side confirming the end of the tightening cycle is far away and that the 1 week deposit will continue to rise with 30bps/month.
EURHUF spot little changed after the rate decision and continue to trade at the highs. Vol remains bid with 1 month at 13.0 and risk reversal at 4.0 for topside, both at 2 months highs. HUF carry is also on the highs with 1 month forward trading 225 pips above spot. All the above makes EURHUF calls rich and we like to sell EURHUF calls.
Sell 1 month 410.00 EURHUF call
Receive 250 pips
Sell 1 month 420 EURHUF call
Receive 125 pips
Spot ref.: 396.25
- The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking.
- Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”.
- Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago.
FX Options Trading:
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By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited.
If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.
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