Will the Year of the Pig bring you fortune? Will the Year of the Pig bring you fortune? Will the Year of the Pig bring you fortune?

Will the Year of the Pig bring you fortune?

Jane Fu

Singapore Sales Trader

Summary:  Many Chinese people take the symbolism of traditional zodiac signs very seriously indeed. But can there really be any correlation between the attributes of the individual year-signs and stock market performance?

In about a week’s time, Chinese people at home and all around the world will celebrate the Lunar New Year, enjoying time with their families, catching up with friends and exchanging traditional “red envelope” gifts. The Chinese lunar calendar is based on a twelve-year cycle and every year is named after one of 12 animals, namely rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, sheep, monkey, rooster, dog and pig, and each animal has its own unique character. 2019 is the year of pig in the Chinese zodiac.. It is very common in Asian culture to link zodiac signs with personal behaviour and one’s fortune in a certain year. Although this may be seen as pure superstition, it is also not uncommon to see people trying to link stock market performance with the Chinese zodiac. Understandably, zodiac culture has often affected the way people make decisions. In this article we’ll try to see whether the stock market returns were indeed affected by the zodiac.

We studied the historical performance of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the S&P500 index in the US.

The Hang Seng Index reflects the performance of major Chinese stocks. When the Hang Seng Index was first introduced internally to Hang Seng Bank staff, its base of 100 points was set equivalent to the 33 component stocks' total value as of the market close on July 31, 1964. The index was only published after November 24,1969. We will study the historical data of Hang Seng Index from 1965 to 2018, which completes more than four full cycles of the Chinese zodiacs.

The graph below shows the year of the pig has been the third-best year for the Hang Seng Index. Past years of the pig have averaged a return of 33.80%, just behind the year of the rat (42.38%) and the year of the rooster (39.23%). The rat years show the highest gains while the snake years display the biggest losses. These findings are consistent with the common belief in Chinese culture where the snake is viewed as a phlegmatic and cold animal.

Our study also uncovered a possible explanation as to why 2018, under the sign of the dog, was such a bad year for traders in the Hong Kong market. The year of the dog has the second-worst performance among all zodiac signs. The findings of this study would have provided advance warning that 2018 would be a tough year for traders who trade the Hong Kong market – the dog did indeed bite. Now that we are waving goodbye to the barking dog, we hope the good-natured pig will give us a year of steadiness and reward with good returns.


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.