From eBay to SpaceX: the deal machine is warming up

Key takeaways

• GameStop’s eBay bid is unusual, but it fits a wider return of big dealmaking.

• Companies are buying scale, data, energy, security and attention, not just revenue.

• A large initial public offering wave could redirect capital toward the biggest stories.

GameStop offering to buy eBay sounds like a market headline generated after three espressos and a trading forum argument. The deal is unsolicited, ambitious and difficult. GameStop is much smaller than eBay. It would need debt, outside capital and shareholder support. That is quite a shopping basket, even before the checkout page loads.

Still, the bigger point is not whether this specific deal happens. It is that mergers and acquisitions, or M&A, are back in the conversation. When companies start reaching for large deals, they are often telling investors something important: organic growth is harder to find, scale matters more, and management teams are willing to act.

The small buyer with the very large trolley

GameStop is a video game retailer that became famous during the 2021 meme stock boom. Under Cohen, it has closed stores, cut costs and shifted more attention toward higher-margin areas such as trading cards, retro games and collectibles.

eBay is a global online marketplace where buyers and sellers trade goods across categories such as electronics, fashion, car parts and collectibles. Its recent results were solid: first-quarter revenue was 3.1 billion USD, up 19%, while gross merchandise volume, the value of goods sold on the platform, rose 18% to 22.2 billion USD.

That explains the logic behind Cohen’s pitch. GameStop has physical stores and a loyal retail investor following. eBay has marketplace scale, seller tools and a stronger position in collectibles. In theory, GameStop stores could help with authentication, collection and logistics for higher-value items sold through eBay.

In practice, the deal is a mountain. Financing matters. Debt costs matter. Integration matters. Culture matters. And when a smaller company tries to buy a larger one, investors usually ask whether ambition has mistaken itself for arithmetic.

The deal market is no longer sleeping

GameStop and eBay are the loudest story today, but they are not alone. Boston Consulting Group notes that 2025 saw a return of mega-deals, with 39 announced transactions above 10 billion USD, up from 28 in 2024.

The list is telling. Union Pacific agreed to buy Norfolk Southern in a huge US railroad consolidation. Electronic Arts is being taken private by a consortium including Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Kimberly-Clark is pursuing Kenvue. Alphabet is buying Wiz to strengthen cloud security. Constellation Energy is buying Calpine to expand in power generation. Palo Alto Networks is buying CyberArk to build a broader cyber security platform for the artificial intelligence era.

The common thread is not random empire building. Companies are buying what they believe they cannot build quickly enough.

Railroads are about network scale. Gaming is about intellectual property and recurring engagement. Data centres are about artificial intelligence infrastructure. Cyber security is about trust, identity and protection as digital systems become more complex. Power generation is about electricity demand, which is suddenly fashionable again after years of being treated like boring plumbing.

Initial public offerings may steal the spotlight

There is another side to the deal cycle: initial public offerings, or IPOs. An IPO is when a private company lists its shares on a stock exchange for public investors.

The potential 2026 pipeline is unusually large. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks and Canva are among the names discussed as possible candidates. Some reports suggest SpaceX could seek a valuation above 1 trillion USD, while OpenAI and Anthropic have also attracted very high private-market valuations.

If even a few of these companies list, they could absorb a lot of investor attention and capital. That matters for public markets. Large IPOs can pull money toward the biggest growth stories, especially when the companies are linked to artificial intelligence, space, data or software infrastructure.

For Europe, this creates a harder question. Listing reforms in London, Frankfurt or Paris may help. But investors do not only buy listing rules. They buy stories, scale and relevance. A well-run mid-sized company can still be attractive, but it may struggle for oxygen when global portfolios are being asked to make room for the next artificial intelligence giant.

The risks investors should watch

The first risk is financing. Big deals often look clever in a slide deck, but debt has a way of becoming less charming when interest costs rise. Watch credit spreads, bond market appetite and whether acquirers rely heavily on optimistic synergy targets.

The second risk is regulation. Railroads, media, cyber security, data centres and consumer health all touch sensitive parts of the economy. Regulators may ask whether consolidation helps customers, workers and competition.

The third risk is valuation. A strong company can still be a weak investment if the entry price assumes perfection. This applies to acquisitions and IPOs alike. The early warning sign is simple: investors stop asking “what could this become?” and start asking “what must go right?”

Investor playbook

• Treat deal headlines as signals, not instructions. They show where companies see scarcity and opportunity.
• Compare the buyer’s balance sheet with the size of the ambition. Financing is part of the strategy.
• Watch whether deals buy real assets, loyal customers, data, power or security, not just a louder story.
• For IPOs, separate business quality from opening-day excitement. The first price is not always the fair price.

What the deal wave is really telling investors

GameStop’s eBay bid may happen, change shape or fade into the large drawer marked “interesting market theatre”. But the timing matters. Companies are again trying to buy scale, infrastructure and strategic relevance, while private giants wait near the public-market door.

For long-term investors, the useful lesson is not to chase every takeover rumour or IPO whisper. It is to ask what these deals reveal about the economy. Growth is still valuable, attention is scarce, and capital is moving toward companies that look essential. In markets, as in e-commerce, the best item is rarely the loudest one in the basket.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.