Technical Outlook - US Industry and Sector analysis

Technical Outlook - US Industry and Sector analysis

Equities 5 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Medium-term analysis of some of the main Industries and Sectors in USA. Charts are all weekly time period and ETF’s are being used. 
This Sector and Industry analysis is planned to be updated bi-weekly and/or when there are some interesting developments. This analysis is planned to be with just short comments and explanations with direction and key support and resistance levels.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
Semiconductor
Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern is still in the process of unfolding its potential. Potential target at around 501.
SOXX closed last week the 434.42 resistance confirming the upside potential to 500.
If price closes below the 396 the uptrend has reversed and the Neckline of the S-H-S pattern is very likely to being tested and a close below the Neckline will demolished the upside picture.

Industrial
Range bound. Bounced from lower range support at 96.30 and 55 weekly Moving Average. If closing below Industrial is likely drop to around 90 i.e., 200 MA. Close above 104.20 likely new highs

Energy
Energy jumped back above resistance at 82.65. Weekly RSI didn’t close below 40 gave upside energy for a strong bounce. If RSI closes back above its falling trendline and above 60 expect Energy to test previous highs around 93-95.
If closing the gap and back below 82.65 bear trend is likely to unfold.

Oil & Gas
Bearish break out of triangle.
After a test of the rising trendline Oil & Gas failed to close above but instead got rejected and seems to resume downtrend.  
RSI rejected at its falling trendline suggest Oil & Gas could drop back to March lows at around 114.58 but a new low should not be ruled as indicated by the arrows.

To reverse the down trend: A close back above and above 55 weekly Moving Average could push Oil&Gas higher towards 146 resistance possibly testing upper falling trendline

Metals and Mining Industry
Has broken below lower rising trendline in the Rising Wedge like pattern only to bounce from key support at around 48.48. However, Metals do not seem to be able to close above 53.50 resuming downtrend.
If Metals & Mining closes below 55 weekly Moving Average 48.48 is likely to be tested A close below 48.48 could fuel another sell off down around 40.
A close back above the lower falling trendline is likely to result in Metals and Mining to resume uptrend

Financial
Financials has bounced strong past couple of weeks but the downtrend is intact supported by RSI showing negative sentiment which is an indicating of lower levels. A close above 34.56 will demolish the bearish picture.

Transportation
Transportation broken bearish out of rising channel pattern. Bounced from key support at around 211.48. To resume uptrend a close above 238.75    

Technology
Broken above medium-term falling trendline and has established an uptrend. A close above resistance at around 152 will pave the way for 164
RSI above 60 confirming the uptrend.

Materials
Materials should be considered range bound. RSI still positive indicating the break below support 76.66 is a false break. Range: 75.50 for 65.00 – 84.60 for 90.61

Utilities
Utilities need to close above 68.80 for further bounce/upside to around 72.50-75.00.
For now 55 weekly Moving Average seems to be a resistance.
A close below the 200 weekly Moving Average is likely to result in Utilities extending downtrend with  2022 lows around 60 as first target.
RSI is showing negative sentiment  that could accelerate if RSI breaks back below 40. For Utilities to reverse the downtrend a close above 72.50 is needed with first indication of that scenario to play out would be a close above 68.80

Retail
Bearish trend. RSI is still showing positive sentiment, however, indicating what we are seeing could just be a correction. But if Retail cannot close back above 200 MA the outlook is bearish with a potential move to 55 support. 55 weekly Moving Average putting a lid on the upside potential.

Health Care
Strong bounce but RSI still below 40 i.e., negative sentiment, needs to close above 60 to reverse to bullish.
Health Care rejected at the 0.618 retracement and seems a bit indecisive at the moment. If sliding back bellow 130.50 down trend is likely to resume
A Sector close above 134 will reverse the downtrend. A close below 129.57 downtrend is likely to resume 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.