Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AEX25/NEHT25 struggling to break strong resistance. BEL20/BELG20 could resume downtrend. CAC40/FRA40 uptrend strong and could continue higher
AEX25 is struggling to close above strong resistance and 0.786 retracement at around 763.40. A close above is likely to push the Index to 777 possibly higher.
RSI is positive suggesting AEX will move higher. However, if AEX closes below 753 a correction dow to around 747-732 should be expected.
NETH25 cfd. Resistance at 765 sems hard to penetrate. A close above is likely to push Index above February peak at 777.
A close below 753 is likely to initiate a correction down to 743
BEL20 Uptrend is intact but a correction could be looming. Index rejected just short of the 0.786 retracement and if BEL20 closes below 3,790 a downwards move to 3,735-3,690 could be seen.
Indicators are indecisive; RSI is showing positive sentiment and the 100 daily Moving Average is rising but the 55 daily Moving Average is declining, BEL20 needs to break above 3,864 to regain upside momentum.
BELG20 cfd: Rejected at the 0.786 retracement . If breaking below 3,780 bear trend likely to resume. Support at 3,735. And 3,700.
A close above 3,857 uptrend is likely to extend to 3,953
CAC40 is fast approaching the 1.382 projection at 7,632. (Largely driven by LMHV btw). No RSI divergence indicates higher Index levels are likely. However a correction after reaching the 1.382 projection should be expected but for CAC to reverse the uptrend a close below 7,300 is needed.
CAC40 could reach the 1.618 projection at around 7,775 going in to May.
FRA40 cfd: Uptrend could extend to 1.681 projection at around 7,777. Uptrend intact unless a close below 7,299.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.