Summary: Overnight risk assets recuperate as oil steadies, US equities posting gains across the board off the back of stronger oil prices.
Risk began on a solid footing in the Asia trade but has since faltered as attention turns to weaker PMIs in Australia and Japan and the raft of PMIs to be released later today as well as the high stakes EUCO meeting. Aussie stocks again lagging Asian counterparts, at the time of writing Nikkei +1.36%, KOSPI +0.83%, Hang Seng +0.39%, ASX200 -0.46%.
Weakness presenting in higher beta Aussie stocks that have bounced back strongly, ahead of reporting season. The price action in oil markets this week, a market with true price discovery that has not been altered by the “unlimited” liquidity from Central Banks, warning the rapid rebound in risk assets has perhaps run its course against the real economy backdrop. The ongoing sharp contraction in both the real economy and corporate earnings leaves little margin for error at current above average valuations, which are based on likely overstated earnings estimates. As it becomes more apparent that the road to recovery and widespread testing/vaccination is long and winding, the pipedream of a mean reverting snapback in activity in the 2H becomes more distant. This calls into question the sustainability of the bounce and continues to cap sentiment. The Aussie banks continue to weigh on the index, another headwind holding back the ASX200. As we wrote earlier this week, as the outlook for the banks and their traditionally juicy dividend payments becomes cloudier, the opportunity cost of these holdings grows. Headwinds include rising consumer credit defaults and bad debts across residential mortgage books and higher impairment charges denting profits. The share prices have already corrected significantly, but there is capacity for ongoing pressure particularly as we expect dividends will likely be deferred to 0 for the first half of 2020. The panic deleveraging of Q1 may be past, but dividend cuts remain a prompt for retail selling, particularly for pensioners reliant on dividends for income. Until this uncertainty is resolved when the big four (CBA, WBC, ANZ, NAB) update the market in May, it will be hard for Aussie stocks to push much higher from these levels.
The Australia Services PMI collapsed, as the lockdown has shuttered many businesses and jobs have been lost with a frightening speed, contributing to the large drop. Flash PMIs will later be released in the US, EZ, Germany, France and the UK. Likely delivering the same cliff drop in activity as lockdowns have largely become more severe throughout April, with services leading the decline. The forward outlook subindices will be useful in gauging how quickly businesses expect activity to rebound, a useful read on the effectiveness of stimulus measures to date and the optimistic assumptions of a V-shaped recovery underpinning risk assets.
WTI leapt almost 25% overnight after the June contract traded down towards $10 at one stage, helping to keep risk buoyed in the US session. Gaining after the heavy sell off and President Trump resorting to other methods to pump the oil price ordering the US Navy to destroy any Iranian gunboats that hassle US ships. However, without some resolution of the ongoing storage issues and vast over supply, we are far from out of the woods. The issue is supply and demand, oil keeps being produced and not used, and the storage problem will be in effect post the shutdown ending whilst the global economy runs below potential. Meaning we may yet relive the horrors of the May contract roll when the June contract rolls, unless those fundamental issues are resolved. The only cure will be a restart of the global economy.
Overnight the ECB eased collateral rules, now accepting sub-investment grade debt in its financing operations which has also soothed nerves into the all-important, or “make or break” as our Christopher Dembik puts it, EUCO meeting tonight. This permits the ECB to continue to finance Italian banks if Italy lost its investment-grade status, relieving some pressure in BTPs.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
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