Technical Update - Natural gas and Crude oil testing key supports. Can they hold and rebound or break lower? Technical Update - Natural gas and Crude oil testing key supports. Can they hold and rebound or break lower? Technical Update - Natural gas and Crude oil testing key supports. Can they hold and rebound or break lower?

Technical Update - Natural gas and Crude oil testing key supports. Can they hold and rebound or break lower?

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Dutch Gas opened today Monday 19th September below its key support €187.50 and is hovering around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 178.42. Dutch gas Is short-term in a down trend and could drop further to next key support at 152. If that scenario plays out RSI has moved below 40 threshold and turned negative.
But if RSI does not close below 40 a rebound could be seen. There is no divergence on RSI above 60 so if RSI does not cancel that picture by a close below 40 the bullish sentiment is still intact. Bottom line; Today’s trading – or rather the closing of today’s trading - is likely to be key.

Source: Saxo Group

Henry Hub gas is testing the key support at 7.55 in what could be the Neckline of a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern. It is not the most perfect pattern as one could argue it is just huge volatility in a broader time series. To be a perfect SHS pattern there should be no uptrend and peak April through June.
Nevertheless, if Henry Hub gas closes below the (Neckline) support there is room down to June/July lows at around 5.35.
However, there is strong support at the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement at 6.44 where the 200 daily SMA also will add to that support area.
For Henry Hub to demolish this picture a close above 9.24 i.e., the right shoulder is needed.

Source: Saxo Group

Brent Crude oil trading in a falling wedge like pattern is likely to have another go at the support at 87.70. If it closes below 87.70 and if RSI breaks below its lower slightly rising trendline with a likely lower value to follow, and Brent is likely to drop further to support at 83.00.
To reverse the selling pressure in Brent it needs to break above 95.80 for a correction around $100.
But to reverse the down trend a close above 105.50 is needed

Source: Saxo Group

WTI Crude oil trading in a falling channel is likely to test key support at 81.90 once again. A close below next support is at 78.48 and stronger support at 74.27.
RSIU is back below 40 with no divergence supporting a scenario with lower levels in WTI.
If WTI find buyers that can lift the oil price above 90.20 a correction up to around the upper falling trendline and possibly to around 97-98 could be seen.



Source: Saxo Group
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.