COT: Funds dumping oil and fuel products COT: Funds dumping oil and fuel products COT: Funds dumping oil and fuel products

COT: Funds dumping oil and fuel products

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  The Commitments of Traders report covering commodity positions held and changes made by money managers in the week to September 8. The week covered the first major US stock market correction since the March pandemic low. The risk off spread to the other sectors with the dollar rising by 1.2% while the Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped by 3% with heavy losses seen across the energy sector.


Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by speculators such as hedge funds and CTA’s across 24 major commodity futures up until last Tuesday, September 8. The week covered the first major US stock market correction since the March pandemic low. The risk off spread to the other sectors with the dollar rising by 1.2% while the Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped by 3% with heavy losses seen across the energy sector.

Responding to these developments, hedge funds were selective in their approach to the different sectors. A major reduction in bullish bets on crude oil and fuel products was somewhat off-set by the continued buying of several agriculture commodities, most noticeable soybeans, corn and coffee. Overall the net long across 24 major commodity futures was reduced for the first time in 12 weeks by 8% to 1.8 million lots.

Energy: A 13% price drop in the week to September 8 saw funds reduce the combined net-long in Brent and WTI by one-quarter to 390,655 lots, the lowest since April. Short-selling on both contracts jumped with the gross short in WTI reaching 109,683 lots, a level last seen before the historic price crash in late April. Many speculators react mostly to price developments without too much focus on underlying fundamentals. On that basis, a break below the uptrend from June was required before the price finally moved lower to bring it more in line with weakening fundamentals.

The recovery in global energy demand continues to show signs of stalling. Many countries around the world, especially in Europe and Asia, are now in the midst of a second wave of coronavirus. As a result, the recovery in fuel demand has stalled with work-from-home and the lack of leisure and business travel - both signs that it will take longer than anticipated to get back to the pre-virus level of energy consumption.

Energy

Metals: A quiet week in metals despite stock market weakness and the stronger dollar. Gold bulls added 2% to their net long while silver saw a 5% reduction in response to a near 6% drop in the price. One note of interest was the 41% reduction in the platinum net long to just 6k lots, not far from the April low. This just before the WPIC in their quarterly outlook changed their 2020 outlook from a surplus to a deficit, citing Covid-19 impact on supply from South Africa and increased investment demand for hard assets.  HG Copper had a quiet week with no change in either the price or the net long which remains elevated near a two-year high.

Precious and industrial metals

Agriculture: The grain sector continued to see strong demand for beans and corn while CBOT wheat longs were scaled back ahead of a monthly report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday. The combined long in the three major crops reached 231k lots compared with a five-year average short of 143k lots.

The grain sector has seen strong gains during the past month as U.S. weather concerns and strong Chinese demand all having helped create a bullish backdrop. The World Agriculture Supply and Demand Report on Friday confirmed the bullish outlook for corn and not least soybeans which reached the highest level since December 2017, corn finished higher while wheat dropped.

Key U.S. crop futures

Soft commodities were mixed with the ethanol link to crude oil driving a 12% reduction in the sugar long while cocoa and coffee continued to be bought. The Arabica coffee long reached a near four year high at 48,450 lots.

Soft commodities
What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.

In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.

In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.

Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.