Details Cookies
Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Technical Update - US 2 & 10-year Treasury yields and Notes Technical Update - US 2 & 10-year Treasury yields and Notes Technical Update - US 2 & 10-year Treasury yields and Notes

Technical Update - US 2 & 10-year Treasury yields and Notes

Bonds 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  US 2 & 10-year Treasury yields collapsed due to turmoil in the US banking sector but now seems to stabilize and rebound. Trend is still up short- and medium term. Read this analysis for levels needed for this to change

Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team

US 2-year Treasury Yields
collapsed due to the turmoil in the US banking sector dropping below 4%. Dipping below 200 daily Moving Average yields bounced to close just above 4%. Rebound continues today having retraced 0.382 of the drop. If yields move above the 55 and 100 daily MA the rebound could take it to the 0.681 retracement at 4.55

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

On the weekly chart there is massive RSI divergence indicating the uptrend in yields are stretched. IF 2-year yields take out this week’s low at 3.83 we could see a correction down to around 3.45 – 3.18, possibly dipping down to support at around 2.85.
If weekly RSI closes back above its falling trend line yields are likely to resume uptrend and make new highs


Source: TradingView

US 10-year Treasury Yields has bounced from the 0.786 retracement at 3.49 dipping below but rebounded from the 200 daily Moving Average. Rebound has reached 0.382 retracement at 3.68 and if it moves back above the 55 and 100 Moving Averages the 0.618 retracement at 3.83 is likely to be tested.
If 10-year yields moves back below Monday trough at 3.42 it is likely to take out key support at around 3.32. If that scenario plays out 10-year yields could drop to around 3%.

The US 10-year Treasury Note future failed to close above the 200 MA and has retraced 0.382. However, RSI is now back above 60 threshold i.e., in bullish sentiment but if the T-Note closes back below 100 MA i.e., below 112 27/32 bear trend is likely to resume.
For the 10-year T-Note to establish a bullish trend short- and medium-term a close above 116 8/32 is needed. If it does there is room up to around 121-122. A close above the upper falling trendline could be an indication of this scenario to play out.

Below is the daily and weekly chart with Ichimoku cloud. Daily price action was rejected failed to close above the cloud and is now back below.
Weekly is still well below the Cloud and below falling trendline. The 10-year T-Note is thereby still in Bearish mode short- and medium-term i.e, higher yields should be expected.


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.