Anthony Scaramucci: "Trump has triggered World Trade War One, recession is next"

This is a transcript of the interview with Anthony Scaramucci, which took place on 24 April 2025.

What do you think Trump's most likely mistake is that will trigger WW3?

Anthony: He's already triggered a war. So you have to understand something—he's triggered tariff war one. And so he's Admiral Yamamoto; he's the one who declared war on the United States by attacking Pearl Harbor. And so he's now declared a world war. It is an economic war. And we are now in tariff war one, but will it go kinetic? I don't think it needs to go kinetic. I think that there are very smart adversaries in this war. The Chinese don't need to go kinetic. I think Trump has mis-sized the Chinese.

If you study the famine that took place in the 1960s during the Cultural Revolution and you study the history of Xi Jinping, he doesn't care. His people will hold tight. If anything, what Trump is doing to China, even though there's weakness economically in China, what he's doing to China will galvanise those people. So Trump has managed to piss off the Canadians, the Chinese, the Europeans, the citizens of the UK, and most industrial countries by declaring tariff war. But I don't see a reason why it would have to go kinetic.

If you're telling me that there's a missile strike in Iran and they attack one of the eastern, western European cities or something like that, could there be a regional war? I don't see why, because remember, you can fight cyber war, you can fight an economic war, you could shut down each other's electrical information grids. It's not clear to me that we need to be dropping nuclear bombs on each other at this point to gain whatever the interests are for the various state leaders.

If US tariffs take effect once again, which economies will be the most impacted? Will the US take the brunt of the damage, or will Europe and China be the bigger losers?

Anthony: Unfortunately for the world, there's no decoupling. We learned this in the global financial crisis. We've learned this in other recessions. If the US is going into a recession, it's going to pull the rest of the world down into a recession.

What I find interesting about the capital markets is that the FTSE and the DAX, on a relative basis, are doing better than the US market since the trade war started. So that means that long-term international capital allocators are saying, "Whoa, I can't trust the US like I used to."

Germany is saying that it's going to borrow money to rearm itself. That means that their industries are going to be doing better. There'll be more profitability. The UK is saying that they have to get a little bit more muscular on defence and other things.

And so I think on the margin, some of the larger European industrial nations will do better because of what Trump is doing to the capital markets in the US. He's making them more capricious. He's making them more unpredictable as a result of his policy. But I think that everyone's going to get hurt.

Looking at Trump’s first 100 days back in office, what do you think is the single most dangerous policy he’s inflicted on the world so far—and what does that tell us about where this presidency is heading?

Anthony: So let's be fair to him. He's done a great job on the US border; it needed to be corralled. You needed to reduce the migration on the border for so many different economic reasons, etc., so he's done a great job on the US border.

The most significant thing that he's done is started a trade war which will lead to a recession and possibly a steep recession.

He's done irreparable damage to the United States because if you're a European leader—let's say I was running France or the UK as a rationalist and I looked at what Trump was doing—I would be saying three things: Number one, I can't really rely on Donald Trump as an ally anymore and there's a chance here that he may not live up to the NATO treaty. Two, 50% of the people in the United States supported Donald Trump, so there's something rotten in the body politics of America. So even if Trump goes away, there's something going on in that country that I can no longer rely on as a faithful partner. And then the third thing is he's causing incalculable damage to the global economy.

So tourism will be down in the United States, USD 90 billion of revenues lost for the US. Trade will be down globally. Unemployment will be up and because of tariffs and the spectre of inflation is actually going to be high. So you're going to potentially run into a situation of stagflation and, by the way, he's using emergency power.

So just to understand that Congress ceded to the President because they didn't want to have the political electoral aftermath. If I am a congressional leader and I declare war, then my constituents say, "You declared war. We're voting out of office." But if I cede that power to the President under emergency powers, I can go to my constituents. It's the President. See? And so for the last 50 years, that's what's been going on in the country. So Trump is saying he has emergency powers to impose these tariffs.

But these cowards, they won't stand up to them. And so, a result of what you have is a very sloppy situation and this is causing irreparable damage to the reputation of the United States as evidenced by the rise in our 10-year interest rates on our Treasury Bonds and other and the weakness in the US dollar.

Just remember something though, Trump is also lying, right? He said he's got 75 people that have come to the table. They want to trade with him. They don't. China, as you and I are speaking, is denying trade talks with the United States. They say they'll take a rational, professional approach, but they've also told people if you're trading with us and you're going to team up with the United States, it's going to harm you. So, when Trump says that he's got the cards, the other people don't have the cards, he doesn't have the cards.

What's the worst-case scenario that could arise from Trump's time as president look like? How bad could things get?

Anthony: The worst-case scenario he declares martial law, he creates enough havoc in the country, economic destabilisation, and he declares martial law and he cancels an election. That would be the worst case.

But I don't see that happening honestly, because I think what you're seeing right now is that there's a system that seems to be holding and what I mean by that is the Supreme Court’s 7 to 2 decision about the deportations and the rights that people have as it relates to due process. Also, you had the situation where the Federal Reserve chairman said, ‘I'm not leaving, too bad.’

Congress, I think, is the weakest part of this. Frankly, I don't know what they're doing or how they're doing it.

And I think the best thing that Trump has going for him is the Democrats. They're in absolute complete disarray. They're internally fighting with each other.

But you can't say as a strategist, a macro person, that there's a 0% chance that Trump would try to do that [implement Martial Law] because he's doing exactly what needs to be done to destroy democracy.

If you read the book ‘How Democracies Die,’ he's doing everything in the book that you would do to prepare yourself to take over from a governmental position. And that's just the facts.

How would Scaramucci advise foreign leaders to act currently re- tariffs in the past, he has, I believe, suggested they ought to hang up the phone on Trump?

Anthony: Hang up the phone. I would take a look at President Xi and Prime Minister Carney's approach to Donald Trump. If you're trying to negotiate with him, he's going to roll you, and he's going to try to demean you. He's a very spiteful guy. I would not engage with the guy, and the less engagement that you have with him, the higher the likelihood that he's going to have to come back to you to cut a deal with you.

I'll tell you something, Carney, he wouldn't call Trump. They finally called Carney, said, "I'm not accepting the call unless in the post-communicate I'm referred to as Prime Minister Carney and my country is referred to as Canada."

So he can't use the words governor and he can't say 51st state in the post-communicate after the call. Carney said that if you and your staff are not willing to agree to that with me, I will not accept the call. And of course, they adhere to it. Trump did say Prime Minister Carney, and he did use Canada and refer to Canada as if it were a sovereign state. So I think that is the best approach to handling him. Kissing Donald Trump's ass is the wrong approach.

Any encouraging signs as we approach the first 100 days, that the grown-ups in the administration are having some influence on Trump?

Anthony: So, if you said to me, what are the positives of the Trump administration? There is going to be crypto-friendly, pro-crypto regulation. I see that as very positive. I think they've done a good job on the border. Up against those two positives are the negatives of the global trade war, the irrationality and the unpredictability of Trump's behaviour in foreign policy, the rejection of our Western European allies, the fight with China, the fight with Canada, the fight with Panama, the verbal assault thus far on Greenland. I mean, these are things that are not helping the US. This doesn't help the US.

In light of the fallout from the Zelenskyy meeting and the leaked Signal messages showing hostile opinions about Europe/the EU from some within Trump’s inner circle, how do you foresee the Trump administration navigating relations with the bloc—particularly when it comes to brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine?

Anthony: You've lost Trump to Vladimir Putin, and so, I don't know what Vladimir Putin has on Donald Trump. And so I'm not going to speculate. A Louisiana politician once said, you can't survive a dead woman or a young boy, meaning if there was information related to those two things, your career couldn’t survive, and I'm not saying that there is, but I'm just saying if there was, then all of a sudden that jigsaw piece comes into play and then the whole thing becomes very clear. That compromise is clearly kowtowing to Vladimir Putin. And so it's not an explicit tape or anything like that, it would have to be something more significant than that.

But I maintain that the elements of the Steele document are real. It's been strongly refuted by the right. But I think Christopher Steele is a pretty good intelligence operative, and I've read through his book unredacted and knowing what I know, I do think that Putin said he was going to take Kiev in 3 days.

He didn't do that. But he did take Washington in three years.

Now he owns Washington. And so why does he own Washington? I don't know. But I think the Europeans would be very smart to know that they've lost the Americans at least over the next three and a half years.

By the way, there are people inside the administration who are for Ukraine. It used to be a guy by the name of Marco Rubio, former senator, now Secretary of State, was for the Ukrainians and for their freedom, and he's couched himself now to Donald Trump.

Is Donald Trump in thrall to Vladimir Putin and if so why?

Anthony: I think there is a compromise. I don't know exactly what it is. I don't know exactly, but Trump acts like it's not ‘I'm having a love affair with this strong man.’, it's not that. And it’s not ‘I too want to be a strong man’ and ‘I love the strong man,’ Vladimir Putin's got something on him.

Trump acts fearfully in relation to Putin. He's not cautious when it comes to other leaders. He's not when it comes to Trudeau. He's not cautious about Starmer. He's very cautious around Putin. I think there's a compromise there. There is a grip that the Russians have on Donald Trump. I don't know what it is, so I'm not going to speculate.

Do you speak with Elon Musk—you share similar interests in crypto and making money. Have you managed to get any kind of steer as to what he is thinking with Tesla and the markets tanking?

Anthony: So, fully disclosed I'm an investor in SpaceX. I'm an investor in X AI and X which have now merged with each other. I don't own any Tesla but I own those two private companies.

I have not spoken to Elon directly, but I do speak to people in management in those two companies as a private investor. And I would say to you that I think that Musk I think was shocked at the reprisal to going this deep into Donald Trump's world.

And I think he was shocked at the reprisal of the stuff that he's done on DOGE, which I think he views as generally patriotic. And I would say to you that I'm probably not a fan of the methodology of DOGE or the process, but I am a fan of, hey, if we can find several hundred billion dollars worth of waste when we're running these large deficits, we certainly should be trying to do that.

So I predict that Musk returns to his businesses. He keeps a good relationship with Donald Trump because they both need each other. Trump is not going to go after the richest person in the world that has a USD 44 billion megaphone known as X. I think that Trump will always praise him and I think Elon will slip into the background and try to figure out a way to rebuild these businesses.

And I do think that you will see X-XL whatever you want to call that conglomeration he's going to build a super app there and I think he's going to be using crypto. Will it be his own coin the way Telegram is doing it? Will it be stable coin? It will be something. I don't know what it will be but it will be something.

What are your thoughts on celebrities who have become involved in politics during this campaign, such as Dana White as a political operator and the UFC as the home of MAGA. Everyone talks about Musk because he’s loud and on TV every day. But White has a similar level of influence on some level and perhaps more of Trump’s respect. What are your views on how he’s positioned himself and the UFC?

Anthony: So, it's a great question. What I would say to you is that Dana White has influence. He has that sort of bro culture because of the UFC fighting, but Dana White has made it very, very clear that he hates the politics. Dana White has made it clear and he said publicly that he does not want to be involved in any future political campaigns.

I take him at his word because I know him personally and I would tell you that he does not like the business effect that happens in politics and I think Elon Musk is experiencing this, and this is irony because about 3 days before the inauguration, I was on Wolf Blitzer's show and I said Elon Musk is going to get hurt by this heavy intense political involvement and they right came at me. I was explaining that economically, the country is so polarised, when you take a stand like that—and remember Musk's natural constituency are liberals that are environmentally friendly, and so he literally alienated his entire constituency, which is why the car sales are down 71%. And by the way, I think they may even be down more than that. I think they backfilled from the prior quarter a little bit, which is what they sometimes do.

So I don't think Dana White is going to be a political figure in the future. But I do recognise that political figures will show up at the UFC and they will use Dana White's platform to try to gain support.

Has Karoline Leavitt broken the so-called curse surrounding WH press secretaries and do you expect her to serve in the role for a long time?

Anthony: When you say that she's broken the curse, that we all get fired very quickly. Is that what that means? Yeah.

I think that she has a shamelessness about her. Whatever you think of Sean Spicer—I used to call him Liar Spice, every Spice Girl's got a nickname and his is Liar Spice—but he had difficulty lying. You could see it on his face that he was lying. Trump is a shameless liar.

Caroline Levit is a shameless liar. And so, yes, I think she'll last longer than others in the role before her, but every time she opens her mouth, I think she's disgraced herself. And I think she's disgraced the job.

The Trump administration’s tariffs are igniting fears of a recession. Bitcoin is seen both as a hedge against inflation and a risk asset. Which narrative will prevail in the case of a recession?

Anthony: So this is a really good question, and so the short answer is yes, it will prevail. And the longer answer is, we only have, I would say, we only have three or four weeks of data where all of a sudden Bitcoin, which was tied to the MAG7 and tied to the NASDAQ, boom, drops. Every time the NASDAQ went down or there was risk off, we're finally seeing this non-correlation where it's trading a little bit like gold, which is outperforming, but it's trading a little bit like gold in the last three weeks. And I think this is a direct result of the Wall Street sales machine. I think you have an enormous amount of inflows taking place in the BlackRock ETF and other ETFs.

You love your American history. You’ll know 1968 was an extraordinarily challenging year with protests and uprisings, and those civil protests continued through the 70s with Vietnam. People have already started taking to the streets in the US, really early in a term of a presidency. With the current policies and tactics, can you see 2025 becoming a groundswell of such resentment among the people that the nation takes to the streets and protests and huge numbers again?

Anthony: Yeah, it's going to be different because remember, when you have your family in harm's way in a kinetic war, the protests become way more emotional and they become way more dramatic. Think of the 1968 political convention in Chicago, examples like that. I think this is going to be a more muted protest thing. This is going to be at the ground level in town halls with representatives. There will be some protests in the cities. There won't be as aggressive or potentially violent. You remember the Kent State protest where some people lost their lives on that college campus. I just don't think it's going to be like that.

But I do think that if I could end it on this bullish note, I think the system is holding and I think the Republicans are going to get their asses kicked in the midterms if they keep this up. And even the disarray and the absolute disaster that the Democrats represent to the United States and even they're on the wrong side of the culture war , because most Americans are in the middle. If the Democrats just said, "We're dropping the hard left nonsense and here's where we are on the democracy and here's where we are on the survival of the republic," they'd win every election, but I don't know what the hell they're doing. They're putting AOC out there with Bernie Sanders. I don't know what the hell they're doing, but I think they're going to beat the Republicans in the midterms. And I think it's going to be very good for America and the world because it's going to force an even system back to something more predictable for America. But damage has been done because you can't do this without having there be damage.