Technical Update - US 2 and 10 year Treasury yields
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Pre-text from previous Yields update of 23rd March
US 10-year Treasury yields has been in a falling trend since the early 1980’s forming a long falling channel (two dark blue parallel lines). In 2018 yields raised sharply breaking out of the channel only to dropping back below a few months later to lowest ever level below 1% in 2020. Since the 2020 low the yield has been on the rise again breaking above the upper falling trend line.
With the sell-off in US Treasuries overnight continuing this morning the 10 year yields have broken the upper (parallel shifted) trend line and is currently testing the 200 Monthly SMA.
If yields break above the 200 SMA we are likely to see 10 year yields reaching 3.15% which is 100% of the Head to Neckline distance in the inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern. However, the 2018 peak at around 3.25% is not unlikely to be tested.
The 10 year Treasury Future has broken below the key support at 121. No strong support before around 117½
The two-year yields is broken above the decennial falling trend line and is on course to test 2018 peak at around 2.85%
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
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The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.