Structural crude outlook update. Also: the equity market faces bigger hurdles now.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

Here is a long-form conversation with Saxo’s Ole Hansen and Kitco on the outlook for copper, precious metals and crude.

Hussman Funds latest commentary (yes, bearish based on insanely stretched valuations relative to history). Still, always worth reading.

Stratechery weighs in on the Nvidia-OpenAI deal, but also looks at Google’s YouTube as a critical part of its potential, far more so than they previously appreciated.

Nassim Taleb weighs in on the simple topic of The World in Which We Live. He is one of the most important thinkers of our time - firmly recommend his entire opus.

David Einhorn weighs in on the risk that much of the AI data center capex will end up destroying enormous amounts of capital.

You can track the odds of a US government shutdown down to the wire here.

Chart of the Day - CPI-adjusted WTI Crude

Below is a chart of the unadjusted WTI crude oil price (blue) and the WTI price (coral) deflated with the official US CPI index (index 100 was mid-1983, so this is in mid-1983 dollar terms). This reveals that the “real” price of WTI crude at present is near its lowest, ex pandemic, since the pre-2000 era. What is more remarkable, perhaps, is the the forward price isn’t far lower still, as the market apparently sees even lower real prices going forward. A hedger can secure December 2028 crude oil for USD 63.3 per barrel today. Assuming just 2% CPI for the next three years, that is well below USD 60 per barrel in today’s US dollars, or about 59.50 per barrel. Compared that to the prompt November 2025 contract that trades today at USD 65.15. Crude oil is very cheap and priced to get ever cheaper. How can this encourage sufficient supply when so much investment is needed just to maintain current production levels?