Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: Tesla’s upcoming earnings have lifted option premiums, creating opportunities for investors to explore cash-secured puts as a way to set a buy-in level while getting paid to wait. This article compares two expiries and strike ranges to illustrate how timing and volatility can influence both risk and potential reward.
Tesla’s next earnings report, scheduled for 22 October, could be a lively one. The stock has been hovering near USD 439 after a strong run, and investors are debating whether results will justify the momentum or trigger a pause. For long-term holders, moments like this can feel uncertain — but they can also open the door to opportunity.
One approach that fits a patient mindset is the cash-secured put (CSP). It’s a conservative options strategy that lets you set a preferred entry point for the stock — often below today’s price — while earning a premium for taking on that obligation. In other words, instead of placing a limit order that pays you nothing while you wait, a CSP pays you for agreeing to buy if the price dips.
At the moment, Tesla’s option market is offering particularly interesting setups around the upcoming earnings date. Two expiries stand out: 24 October 2025, which falls just after results are announced, and 21 November 2025, roughly a month later. Both allow investors to express a bullish long-term view but differ in how much time, risk, and potential reward they carry.
The October contracts capture the immediate reaction to earnings, when volatility is at its highest. They pay attractive premiums but come with concentrated event risk — a sharp post-earnings move could easily test your strike. The November contracts, on the other hand, extend beyond the noise of earnings week. They offer a steadier, lower-stress way to potentially acquire Tesla shares at a discount once the market has absorbed the results.
Choosing between the two is less about guessing the earnings outcome and more about deciding how you want to take exposure: do you prefer a quick opportunity with more uncertainty, or a slower, steadier approach that fits a buy-and-hold rhythm?
A cash-secured put is one of the most straightforward option strategies, yet it’s often misunderstood. When you sell a put, you agree to buy 100 shares of a stock at a set price (the strike) if it trades below that level at expiry. In return, you collect a premium up front.
To ensure you can meet that obligation, you keep enough cash in your account to cover the purchase — hence the term cash-secured. If the share price stays above your strike, you keep the premium and the trade simply expires worthless. If the stock falls below your strike, you may be assigned and buy the shares at an effective cost of strike minus premium.
It’s a strategy that works best for investors who already like the stock and are happy to own it at a lower level. The CSP simply formalises that intention, offering compensation while you wait for the right entry.
Important note: The strategies and examples described are purely for educational purposes. They assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor must conduct their own due diligence, considering their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risks, so make informed decisions.
Looking at the 24 October 2025 option chain, two strikes stand out:
The 400 put sits roughly 9% below Tesla’s current price and offers a reasonable buffer if the stock sells off after earnings. The 430 put, by contrast, lies much closer to the market and carries a higher premium — but also a higher likelihood of assignment if results disappoint.
The choice between them simply illustrates how different investors might approach event risk. These examples aren’t recommendations but ways to understand how strike selection changes the balance between income and safety. Many other combinations of strikes and expiries are possible depending on personal outlook, risk comfort, and portfolio objectives.
Further out, the 21 November 2025 expiry offers a different rhythm altogether. Here, the focus shifts from the immediate earnings move to what happens in the weeks that follow.
Two notable strikes include:
The 350 put represents a deeply discounted potential entry — more than 20% below today’s price — appealing to those who see long-term value but want a wide buffer. The 400 put again offers a balanced trade: meaningful premium income with a realistic chance of being assigned at an effective cost near USD 385.
Because these options expire a month later, they spread risk across a longer period and avoid the concentrated uncertainty around earnings week. The trade-off is a lower daily premium, but the reward is smoother price action and less chance of a sharp overnight surprise.
All of the following examples assume the base case of using a cash-secured put, meaning the investor is willing to buy Tesla shares at a chosen strike price if assigned. The comparisons below are therefore educational illustrations of how different strike and expiry selections can change the balance between time, risk, and premium potential — there are many other ways to structure such trades.
Managing a CSP doesn’t end after opening it. Once the trade is on, there are three main paths forward:
Because CSPs require full cash collateral, the key is preparation. Treat each trade as a conditional stock purchase plan, not a short-term bet.
Cash-secured puts are one of the most practical tools for long-term investors who prefer steady decisions over constant action. In Tesla’s case, both the 24 October and 21 November expiries present useful ways to express a patient, bullish stance.
The October options provide high short-term premiums but come with the volatility of earnings week. The November series trade with calmer conditions, lower implied volatility, and more flexibility in managing the position.
Ultimately, the best choice depends on your time horizon and comfort with temporary drawdowns. Both paths can align with a buy-and-hold approach — either as a way to earn additional return on idle cash or to accumulate shares at levels that fit your long-term conviction.
More from the author |
---|