Macro Dragon: What Makes a Great Consigliere? Macro Dragon: What Makes a Great Consigliere? Macro Dragon: What Makes a Great Consigliere?

Macro Dragon: What Makes a Great Consigliere?

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: What Makes a Great Consigliere? 

 

Top of Mind…

  • Boom! Gooooooooooooooood Morning from the Asia Pacific & Happy Macro Weds – a good evening-night to the Americas, MEA & Europe. Yes one of those extra positive & energetic mornings. This. Is. GOOD.

  • Do you know what the role is of a great consigliere?

  • Be they advisor, non-executive director, strategist, consultant or analyst…

  • Most people think it is coming up with new ideas, something fresh & different… preferably contrarian as well. Folks always want a different story, as they feel that something different has more edge… its this default notion that: More = Better… New = Edge

  • Could not disagree more…

  • …a great consigliere/advisor/strategist does at least two things very well…

  • ONE: They tell you what you need to listen to, regardless of whether you want to hear it

  • Yes, the epitome of a great advisor is someone who you pay to have perceived uncomfortable conversations with & potentially make perceived uncomfortable actions

  • This was sound cliché in a supposed world of ‘meritocracy’, ‘open dialogue’ & ‘flat structures’… yet the truth of the matter is the vast majority of us (+90%) surround ourselves explicitly (i.e. Trump, CEOs & most portfolio managers) or tacitly (More portfolio managers, CIOs, CEOs, Senior Executives, Managers, Leaders, ourselves & almost certainly everyone reading this) with people who we know won’t rock the boat.

  • People who we know tick the boxes of being part of Tribe Consensus - & most importantly people that do not stretch us in any way.

  • Even though we claim otherwise (“I want out of box thinkers & works…” “I want my views & ideas challenged…”), the force of the reversion to mean is strong & if you think about this… from an evolution's perspective this makes sense, we are wired to flow away from conflict &/or potential conflict… Because back in the Caveman / Serengeti days… conflict with one another likely meant violence, potentially death or even explosion.

  • Conformity to the Tribe, became the ultimate low risk pathway & paradoxically, a great way to “adapt”. In ‘wealth’ management (generally more like ‘wealth transfer management’, with investors for the most part paying a select few people for the privilege of under-performing on their assets) there is the icon adage of saying, “You can’t be fired for owning IBM”. And here you can paraphrase with anything in stead of IBM, say “Wharton”, “Harvard”, “MBA” or following the “CEO”, “Founder”, “Consensus”, etc.  

  • How many times have you heard, so & so is really smart & went to such & such school & fits right into the cookie cutter tray of our team – then folks wonder why they cannot break out of gravitational pool of Planet Average.

  • KVP used to ask people when they went down this tangent, “why do you think he/she is smart?”… genuinely curious, give us an example or two. And so far, it all ends up being societal window dressing. The thing about really smart people, is that its akin to coming across an athlete. No one has to tell you that an athlete is fit, they work out, they are built, they are slim, etc… you can almost instantly tell. No true self-respective athlete has to claim that they are an athlete. Just as no one truly smart, claims they are smart – in fact that could be an inverse signal right there (“stable genius”).

  • Where is the skin-in-the-game of so & so’s actions, thought process, versatility around live & epic events? Most of these muppets could not find their way out of an open bathroom…

  • Anyhow, we digress… back to point two…

  • TWO: They focus on the meta trends, the big moves & Goliath events… and they bang the drums on these (more rightly than wrongly over time) until everyone know’s their anthem

  • Point here being, they understand that its not about catching every potential wave… its just about catching a few big waves overtime… everything else is just noise. You don’t have epic daily memories when you replay your gifted bandwidth so far on planet earth, you have chunks of highlights around key events that tacitly or explicitly, have meaning to you

  • Point two is embedded in process & systems, not outcomes

  • Keep yesterday’s Dragon’s thoughts on Know Your Regime & a Phase One Deal Break Pathway on the Radar… they are not going to change anytime soon, especially the former…

  • Lastly we are not even hinting that KVP = Macro’s MVP… that would be akin to someone calling themselves “smart”, or KVP’s personal favorite calling themselves a “Hedge Fund Manager”… yet there is a reason we have banged the drums repeatedly this year with different intensity on US duration longs, oil shorts, credit longs, NOK & NO assets longs, USD shorts, gold & precious metal longs…  

  • Today: We have BoJ later on today, as well as inflation out of the UK alongside PPI & house prices. The US will see Empire State mfg, import prices, IP & capacity utilization. CA will likely take center stage with BoC. And of course the focus will continue on US earnings – remember how the Dragon was going on about US banks needing to write down bad loans? Well here we are in 2Q… Three US banks set aside record $28bn for loan losses

-

Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way

KVP

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.