Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 25...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 25...
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 25… What kind of week are you trying to have?
- Quick snapshot of the wk ahead will likely be focused on Powell, Clarida as well as decisions out of BoJ & likely more importantly SNB. We’ll get the first speech from BoC’s new governor Macklem. There is also a flock of EM CB’s meeting this wk including Chile, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia & Taiwan.
- Most important known unknowns is likely to be the EU meetings discussing the 750bn euros – the so called “frugal” four vs. the German-Franco-Italiano block.
- Technicals & Charts: Overall chart action over the wkd suggests to KVP quite a bit of divergence between daily & hourly charts, most daily suggesting MR towards more risk-of & USD strength... yet the hrly trying to say we likely already saw that start to correct on Fri...
- A few other things that were noted... AUD & NZD... much closer to resistance with support being miles away...
- NOK had a pretty decent correction last wk, in fact the G10 worst vs. USD.... -3.4% vs. say CAD -1.2%.... hmm....
- Looks like overall skews of favoring Gold, JPY & CHF into FOMC as being asymmetrical have played out well... as of last wk were +2.7%, +2.1% & +1.0% vs. USD
- Copper interestingly enough still did very well last wk, despite of the rock-roll prior bullish wk... i.e. +1.7% & +5.4%...
- Bonds - especially TY1 & Bunds prices had a massive reversal upwards last wk... JGBs & CGBs lagging...
- Equities - huge weekly inverse hammers with AMZN & TSLA (generally bearish indicator), those wicks are longer than a US unemployment line... interestingly things like NFLX have been broken down for a while... whilst your Zooms similar to Amazon & Tesla went on to make ATH last wk
- Economic data: Econ data is relatively light outside of China’s monthly growth numbers, Australia’s monthly jobs numbers & New Zealand quarterly inflation data. We got some monthly inflation figures out of the UK, CA & EZ… retail sales out of the US, UK & CA… with the rest being a mixed bag. Worth noting there is a lot of bond auctions this wk
- Central Banks: Japan, UK, Chile, Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan, Russia
- Holidays: No major markets out
- US: Empire State, Retail Sales, Cap. Util, IP, Housing data, Philly Fed, Current Account
- CH: All three - Fixed Asset Investments, IP & Retail Sales have missed expectations
- EZ: Trade Balance, GER ZEW, Final CPI, ECB Economic Bulletin, Current Account
- JP: BoJ, Tertiary Industry Activity, Trade Balance, National Core CPI
- UK: BoE, AHE, CPI, House Prices, Retail Sales
- AU: RBA Mins, Jobs Data
- NZ: GDP Q/Q, Visitor Arrivals, Milk Auction
- CA: Mfg. Sales, CPI, ADP, House Prices, Retail Sales
Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.