Market Quick Take - 2 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and Europe paused as chip weakness spread, while Asia followed lower as Korea’s AI winners reversed sharply
• Volatility: Equities dipped on chip weakness despite Warsh's dovish inflation comments, SKEW jumped ahead of payrolls Thursday
• Digital Assets: Crypto bounced off quarterly lows even as Bitcoin ETFs logged their worst month on record
• Commodities: Gold gains on easing inflation fears; Brent extends decline towards USD 70
• Fixed Income: US treasuries choppy ahead of US jobs data. Japan’s long yields rise sharply.
• Currencies: Sterling trades at highest level versus euro in a year.
• Macro: US June Nonfarm Payrolls, US June Unemployment Rate

Macro

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations have eased, but reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability. He said that the FOMC will “have a good family fight” at the July FOMC meeting.
• Separate data showed US private-sector hiring slowed more than expected last month, with the ADP saying the slowdown reflected weaker demand and labor supply constraints. Annual pay rose 4.4% for job stayers and 6.6% for switchers.
• Euro-zone inflation undershoots: Euro-area CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, below the 3% consensus estimate and down from 3.2% in May, aided by retreating oil prices. Core and services inflation also surprised to the downside. ECB policymakers at Sintra showed no consensus on the next rate move.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May, below expectations, signaling slower growth. Output and new orders cooled, employment stayed just in contraction, and the prices index dropped but remained high. Firms cited persistent inflation, geopolitical risks, higher-rate concerns, and trade policy uncertainty as headwinds.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1230 – US June Nonfarm Payrolls
• 1230 – US June Unemployment Rate
• 1230 – US June Average Hourly Earnings

US Markets will be closed Friday to mark July 4 holiday.

Earnings events

Next week:

• Wednesday: Kongsberg Gruppen
• Thursday: Pepsico, Fast Retailing, Progressive, Cintas, Seven and I Holdings
• Friday: Delta Airlines

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.5% as the semiconductor trade cooled quickly after a strong quarter. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 6.3%, with Micron down 10.6% and Corning off 13.6% as investors took profits in AI-linked hardware. Meta jumped almost 9% after reports it could sell excess AI computing capacity through a cloud-infrastructure business, giving investors a clearer payback story for heavy AI spending. Financials helped cushion the market, while Walmart fell 3.9% after weaker sales trend checks. Jobs data and chip sentiment are next.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% to 639.31 on Wednesday, while the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.7% and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%, as investors paused after Europe’s best quarter since 2020. Germany’s DAX rose 0.2% to 25,040, helped by defence strength, with Rheinmetall up 6.1% as the sector extended gains after the UK’s £15 billion military spending pledge. ASML fell 4.6% and weighed on the wider market as chip weakness crossed the Atlantic. AstraZeneca lost 1.7% and Associated British Foods fell 3.2% in London. Investors now watch whether earnings can defend recent valuations.
• Asia: Asian equities came under pressure on Thursday as the US semiconductor selloff spread into the region’s most crowded AI winners. South Korea’s Kospi fell sharply in early trade, with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Samsung Electro-Mechanics dragging the index lower as investors questioned how much good news was already priced in. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded lower, while US equity futures also weakened in Asian hours. Japan had risen on Wednesday, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.6% at 70,475, supported by AI and semiconductor-linked shares. Hong Kong reopened after Wednesday’s holiday, while China’s CSI 300 fell 0.4% on inverter import-ban concerns.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

• The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,483 on Wednesday as chipmaker weakness offset broad gains; the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.5% even as Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks have eased. VIX rose to 16.59, with VIX1D jumping to 13.02 ahead of Thursday's payrolls. SKEW moved to 154.82, a meaningful step higher.
• Options flow was mixed: Mag7 calls centred on Meta's cloud pivot, while index puts read as mid-market rather than clean hedging. SPXW implies a weekly move of about 45 points (0.60%) to 7,439-7,528; today is itself the adjusted weekly expiry, since Friday is the observed July 4 holiday. 
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin traded near $60,925, up around 1.7% and off its weakest levels of the quarter; Ether added roughly 1.9% to $1,637. The bounce follows US spot Bitcoin ETFs posting their worst month on record in June, shedding $4.5 billion, with stalled US crypto legislation cited as the main drag on demand.
• Coinbase surged 8.9% and MicroStrategy 7.4%, sharply outpacing spot, while miners diverged hard, with Riot down 12.5%.

Commodities

• Gold jumped on Wednesday, briefly trading above the key USD 4,100 level after rebounding from an intraday low of USD 3,960, as Fed Chair Warsh dampened speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates this year, saying inflation risks have eased in recent weeks alongside lower energy prices. Meanwhile, the one-year US inflation swap has fallen sharply from a May peak of 3.5% to around 2.1%, reinforcing expectations that inflation concerns may gradually fade and potentially helping establish a floor under precious metals. Ahead of Friday's US holiday, the market's focus turns to the US jobs report, the dollar, and Treasury yields.
• Brent extended its slide towards USD 70 and pre-war levels as flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, while signs of progress in indirect US-Iran talks further eased supply concerns. Combined with ongoing releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and demand that has been curtailed by recent high prices, the market remains exposed to a short-term supply glut despite the broader market remaining relatively tight. Refined fuel products continue to trade strongly amid constrained supplies, keeping refinery margins elevated and delaying the pass-through of lower crude prices to consumers.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US treasuries chopped around, but yields remain higher after June ended with steep treasury sell-off. Focus on US jobs report today after Fed Chair Warsh comments on the strength of the economy and labor market Wednesday. The benchmark 2-year yield is approximately unchanged near 4.17%, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield slightly higher at 4.49%.
• Japan’s government bonds sold off at long end of the curve, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rising fully six basis points to 2.77% and nearing its modern (post-1990’s) high near 2.80%. The 30-year yield closed over four basis point higher and above 4.00% for the first time since late May.
• More on fixed income and bonds in our dedicated section: Investment Bonds & Stock Market Analysis

Currencies

• Sterling strengthened sharply Thursday as EURGBP fell through and closed below the 0.8600 level for the first time in almost exactly a year, trading 0.8565 in early trading Thursday. Some of the selling pressure came on a weak June flash CPI print from Europe Wednesday.
• Elsewhere, the US dollar was largely directionless, as EURUSD remains bogged down below 1.400 and USDJPY was capped, trading back toward 162.35 early Thursday after a post-1980’s record high of 162.84.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

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