Market Quick Take – 13 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US healthcare and AI chips lifted the Dow to new records, Europe broke to fresh highs, Asia mostly firmer with Japan and Hong Kong up
• Volatility: calm conditions, CPI in focus, SPX expected move ±53, downside skew persists
• Digital Assets: BTC steady, selective alt-coin strength, IBIT/ETHA consolidate, macro data key
• Currencies: USD sideways, perhaps in part as traders concerned Japan’s officialdom may react to USDJPY above 155.00
• Commodities: Tight supply drives silver toward record while ample supply hits crude prices
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields slightly higher after gapping lower yesterday on soft ADP payrolls data released during Tuesday holiday.
• Macro events: US government reopening, Japan PPI surprise, Fed balance-sheet remarks, strong Australian employment data

Macro headlines

• The US House of Representatives passed a bill to re-open the government and President Trump signed it, which will end the US shutdown, eventually allowing the official US economic data releases to gradually resume.
• Japan's producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in October 2025, slightly down from 2.8% in September but above the expected 2.5%. Most components saw price growth, though slower, while chemicals, iron and steel, and petroleum and coal products experienced further declines. Monthly prices increased 0.4%, below the 0.5% forecast.
• Fed's Williams stated that once reserves are ample, gradual bond-buying will resume soon, requiring expansion of holdings. He noted determining ample reserves is 'inexact,' and balance sheet expansion is technical, not monetary policy.
• Australia's unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October 2025, beating expectations of 4.4% and down from 4.5% in September. Unemployment dropped by 17,000 to 665,400, while employment rose by 42,200 to a record 14.68 million, exceeding a forecasted 20,000 increase..

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
0700 – UK Sep. Manufacturing Production
0700 – UK Sep. Trade Balance
0700 – UK Q3 GDP Estimate
0900 – IEA's Monthly Oil Market Report
1300 – US Fed’s Daly to speak on Fed’s balance sheet management
1700 – US weekly crude and fuel stocks report
1800 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds

Earnings this week

• Today: Siemens, Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Deutsche Telekom, Brookfield, Nu Holdings
• Thu: Compagnie Financiere Richemont

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks advanced as the Dow climbed 0.7% to another record close above 48,000, while the S&P 500 added 0.1% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% as megacaps stayed soft. Healthcare led the tape, with Eli Lilly up 3.0% and AbbVie up 3.6% as investors leaned into obesity and immunology cash-flow stories. AI chips stayed in focus after AMD jumped 9.0% on an aggressive long-term data-centre revenue target, reinforcing the broader AI build-out even as some tech leaders lagged. At the weaker end, EV maker Polestar fell 15.4% after a wider quarterly loss and a reverse stock split plan to preserve its Nasdaq listing, a reminder that capital remains selective outside quality names.
• Europe: European equities pushed to fresh highs as the STOXX 50 rose 1.1% and the STOXX 600 gained 0.7%, with the FTSE 100 up 0.1%, helped by relief over a likely US government reopening and expectations that the Fed will keep cutting rates into 2026. Cyclicals and quality growth outperformed: Infineon rallied 6.9% after outlining revenue ambitions into 2026, RWE jumped 9.1% on stronger profits, and Bayer rose 5.9% as its restructuring story regained some credibility. In consumer and financials, LVMH gained 2.3% and traded back near its 2025 highs, while Intesa Sanpaolo added 1.6% to another record, underlining ongoing support from higher-for-longer rates. The setup keeps the “quality Europe” trade in play into year-end, particularly in utilities, luxury and high-dividend banks.
• Asia: Asian markets were mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.3% and the Hang Seng adding 0.9% to a one-month high, while the CSI 300 in mainland China slipped 0.1%. Hong Kong’s advance remained led by property and financial names as investors tracked Wall Street’s record Dow close and priced in an imminent US government reopening. Sentiment improved further after reports that Beijing will expand private-sector participation in infrastructure and energy projects, alongside October mainland car sales rising about 9% year-on-year on subsidies. Defensives such as Nongfu Spring and China Resources Land, together with tech and travel names like Xiaomi and Trip.com, traded firmer, hinting at a cautious return of risk appetite across China-linked assets.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains subdued, with the VIX steady around 17.5 and short-dated measures such as VIX1D (12.06) and VIX9D (15.37) signalling a relatively calm setup as investors wait for today’s US inflation data. The reopening of the US government removes an immediate tail risk but unlocks a backlog of economic releases, which could reintroduce volatility over the coming sessions. CPI, jobless claims, and the 30-year auction later today form the main catalysts likely to influence rate expectations and market direction.
• For this Friday’s SPX expiry, options imply an expected move of roughly ±53 points, or about ±0.8%, indicating that markets are still priced for modest swings rather than major disruptions.
• Skew indicator: the very short-dated chain continues to show a tilt toward downside protection, with out-of-the-money puts around the 6850 strike pricing richer than equivalent calls.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are mixed this morning, with bitcoin steady around USD 103.7k and ether recovering above USD 3.5k, helped by a mild improvement in risk appetite following the end of the US government shutdown. Alt-coins show a selective drift higher, with XRP and Solana in positive territory, while broader sentiment remains cautious and sensitive to incoming US inflation data.
• ETF flows remain a focal point. IBIT slipped to USD 57.59, reflecting a day of light outflows across bitcoin ETFs, while ETHA trades around USD 25.79, consolidating after recent volatility. Despite uneven flows, institutional interest has not disappeared; rather, it appears more measured as investors digest the macro backdrop.
• The next catalysts for crypto are likely to come from US CPI, Treasury issuance, and renewed visibility on economic activity now that government data releases resume.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields edged slightly higher overnight after opening lower after the Veterans’ day holiday on weak ADP payrolls number, with the 2-year benchmark up a basis point to 3.58% from yesterday’s close and the 10-year benchmark up two basis points to 4.09%. US traders await a schedule of delayed official data releases after the extended government shutdown.

Commodities

• Gold, silver, and platinum surged on Wednesday as the reopening of the US government refocuses traders on a weakening economic outlook and spending pledges that will further expand the fiscal deficit. That combination continues to drive demand for hard assets as a hedge. With the October correction now behind us, buyers are firmly back in control, supported by fresh momentum and fear-of-missing-out flows. Gold trades back above USD 4,200, while silver’s 5% rise since Monday has lifted it toward record levels above USD 54.

• Copper has also firmed this week, benefiting from the same macro drivers supporting precious metals. Added support comes from intensifying focus on AI and data-center constraints, with several projects reportedly sitting idle due to inadequate power availability. This highlights the scale of infrastructure investment needed to electrify and “power up” AI ambitions globally.

• Crude prices slumped as signs mount that the long-anticipated supply glut has finally emerged. WTI is nearing USD 58 after a drop of more than 4%, while Brent has slipped below USD 63, with OPEC—restoring previously idled capacity—reporting that global supply exceeded demand in Q3. The front end of the WTI futures curve is now trading close to contango, a bearish structure, for the first time since February. On today’s calendar are the IEA’s Monthly Oil Market Report and the EIA’s weekly US inventory data

Currencies

• Sluggish moves in currencies as the US dollar trades sideways against the other major currencies, with EURUSD pinned just below 1.1600 and USDJPY dancing around near the psychological 155.00 level, afraid perhaps to attack higher levels on fears the Japan’s Ministry of Finance may step up intervention rhetoric and even action. USD traders await a schedule for delayed official US data releases. 

• Sterling weakness continues on the recent weak labor market data, but also as political uncertainty weighed on indications that another Labor politician may challenge Keir Starmer’s leadership. EURGBP traded to a new high just above local resistance at 0.8830 but failed to extend higher, while GBPCHF plunged to new lows below 1.0500 – ending the day at 1.0478, the lowest daily close in the history of the currency pair. An intraday low of 1.0186 occurred during the PM Liz Truss mini-budget debacle in late 2022.

• AUD found fresh strength on the strong employment data for October, with AUDNZD rising to fresh highs for the cycle and since 2013 above 1.1600 before pulling back.