Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Will GBPUSD test parity or rebound higher? EURGBP rejected at key resistance, will it have another go?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
GBPUSD seems to collapse trading below 1985 levels. will it test parity? EURGBP rejected at 0.9290 but indicators point to higher levels - 0.95 next?
GBPUSD continued its collapse this morning to 1.03 before being lifted by buying. GBPUSD is in uncharted territory i.e., at levels not seen when we have data. However, it touched the 1.382 projection of the Q1 2020 to Q2 2021 bull market. Depending on where GBPUSD ends the day today it could indicate an exhaustive move.
If GBPUSD closes around current levels (around 1.07) or higher it would have formed a Hammer candle (Small body with lower shadow at least 2-3 times as long as the body and no or very short upper shadow) on the daily chart. It would be an indication of a bottom and reversal that can initiate a rebound to around 1.1065 i.e. the 0.382 retracement of the past two months of sell-off.
BUT market is still open and the picture can change.
If GBPUSD at the end of today’s price range – or lower – more down side is like. Parity would be in sight.
Weekly RSI has broken its rising trend and made a new low supporting a continued bearish outlook.
EURGBP spiked to the 1.764 Extension of the Q1-Q2 2022 uptrend just a few pips from the Q3 2020 peak at around 0.9290 and has since collapsed. EURGBP could be forming a shooting star on the daily chart if it closed a current levels or lower. (If closing at same price as the opening price it will be a Gravestone Doji). If that picture is drawn it could be an exhaustive move and a correction is in the cards. A correction tht could take EURGBP down to 0.88-0.87.
However, if market closes at the upper end of today’s price action – or higher the uptrend is likely to continue. If closing above 0.9290 2020 peak at around 0.95 is next level to look for.
There is no divergence on RSI on both Daily and Weekly indicating higher levels are likely .
However, if market closes at the upper end of today’s price action – or higher the uptrend is likely to continue. If closing above 0.9290 2020 peak at around 0.95 is next level to look for.
There is no divergence on RSI on both Daily and Weekly indicating higher levels are likely .
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy