Earnings Watch: Busy week with focus on Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, and Siemens Earnings Watch: Busy week with focus on Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, and Siemens Earnings Watch: Busy week with focus on Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, and Siemens

Earnings Watch: Busy week with focus on Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, and Siemens

Equities 5 minutes to read
Peter Garnry

Head of Saxo Strats

Summary:  The upcoming week promises a packed schedule of earnings releases, with companies across various sectors in Europe and the US reporting their Q4 results. Caterpillar, the world's leading machinery equipment company, might encounter headwinds in 2024 due to rising interest rates impacting the construction industry. Their earnings report could offer valuable insights into broader economic trends. Eli Lilly, on the other hand, is capitalizing on the boom in obesity drugs with their GLP-1 medication Zepbound. Investors will be particularly interested in their future revenue guidance for this drug, especially compared to competitor Novo Nordisk. Siemens' upcoming report will reveal if the global industrial sector is showing signs of recovery. Wage pressures could temporarily affect their operating margin, but overall growth figures are crucial for investor confidence.


Another big week on earnings

Last week, US technology companies stole the show on earnings with generally strong results to show, while this week will keep the pace on earnings but from a wider range of companies in both Europe and the US. While Q4 earnings have overall been strong and in particular in the technology and communication services sectors, stocks have rallied much more the past six months than earnings have improved. This has expanded our valuation measure on the MSCI World Index (see chart below) which means that expectations might be running a bit too high setting the bar too high for companies in the Q1 earnings season which starts in mid-April.

The list below highlights the most important earnings to track this week for equity investors, and our key focus is in particular on earnings from Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, and Siemens.

  • Monday: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Caterpillar, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, McDonald’s, Palantir

  • Tuesday: Toyota Motor, UBS Group, Linde, Amgen, Gilead Sciences, Eli Lilly, BP, Fiserv, KKR, Infineon Technologies, Spotify, Intesa Sanpaolo

  • Wednesday: Equinor, Walt Disney, Alibaba, TotalEnergies, Uber Technologies, CVS Health, Siemens Energy, Vestas Wind Systems, Orsted, Carlsberg, ARM, PayPal

  • Thursday: NTT, Siemens, AstraZeneca, Unilever, Philip Morris, S&P Global, L’Oreal, ConocoPhillips, Adyen, ArcelorMittal, Maersk

  • Friday: Toyota Electron, Hermes International, PepsiCo, Coloplast 

Caterpillar: Headwinds to materialize in 2024 on impact from higher interest rates

Caterpillar reports Q4 earnings today at 11:30 GMT with analysts expecting revenue of $16.5bn flat compared to a year ago, and EBITDA of $3.6bn up from $3.4bn a year ago. The world’s largest machinery equipment company is likely facing a transition year in 2024 as the impact from higher interest rates is finally hitting the global construction industry with orders and the backlog expected to decline in 2024. So why is it worth to watch Caterpillar earnings? The reason is that global construction and mining are important cyclical parts of the economy and any pickup will be seen in Caterpillar’s orders and thus the company’s outlook gives clues to economic growth.

Eli Lilly: Riding the wave in obesity drug boom

Eli Lilly reports Q4 earnings tomorrow before the US market open with analysts expecting revenue of $9bn up 23% y/y and EBITDA of $2.5bn unchanged from a year ago. While Mounjaro, the GLP-1 approved for treating diabetes, will dominate the figures for Eli Lilly, investors will focus on Zepbound, the GLP-1 drug approved for obesity treatment, because this is where the future growth will come from. Especially, guidance on Zepbound revenue for 2024 will be key for investors in order to compare equity valuations against that of Novo Nordisk which is so far leading the initial growth wave in obesity drugs. Analysts expect FY24 revenue growth of 17% for Eli Lilly and 22% for Novo Nordisk.

Siemens: Is the global industrial sector turning a corner?

Siemens reports FY24 Q1 (ending 31 Dec) earnings on Thursday before the market open in Europe with analysts expecting revenue €18.8bn up 4% y/y and EBITDA of €3.2bn unchanged compared to a year ago. The key question for investors is whether the headwinds in orders and destocking ended in the previous fiscal quarter and the quarters ahead would see improving growth figures. Siemens’ operating margin may also be under pressure for some quarter due to wage pressures until productivity initiatives flow through the business group.

A key test of the wind turbine industry

Since the pandemic broke out impacting global supply chains and commodity markets for the key materials used in wind turbines the wind turbine industry has been plagued by lower growth compared to the growth years 2012-2019. Higher project installation costs have negatively impacted the competitiveness of wind power relative to solar. Recently the lower natural gas prices in the US, and less so in Europe, have further eroded the competitiveness in the short-term. Last year, Siemens Energy also revealed design errors on its newest onshore turbine models which further painted a picture of an industry in a deep crisis. Finally, cheaper Chinese manufacturers are pressuring wind turbine manufacturers in the US and Europe, and industrial policies of slapping tariffs on imported Chinese turbines might come in the future.

On Wednesday, the three giants in the wind industry, Siemens Energy, Vestas, and Orsted, will report earnings and while sentiment has shifted for the better for Siemens Energy and Vestas, investors are super nervous about Orsted’s results and especially business outlook. For investors interested in renewable energy earnings releases from these three companies are a must watch.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.