Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
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Macro Dragon: Equities Divergence, Technical Check in on the divergence on AirBnB [ABNB], Compass Pathways [CMPS] & Beyond Meat [BYND]
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: Technical Check-in on the Equities Divergences on AirBnB [ABNB], Compass Pathways [CMPS] & Beyond Meat [BYND]
Top of Mind…
- As KVP gets back in the game, its been flagged by our world class Global Sales Trading Team - that we need more equity focus pieces for our clients... so we are just gonna check into three names that we've covered on the Macro Dragon before
- As always, be wary of any equity analyst talking about equites, let alone the Macro Dude talking about equities... :)
- Let’s start with the underperformer, BYND – which the Dragon has been covering for a whilst, since it actually listed. The Macro Skew on this was covered in Aug 2020; Erns Watch: Beyond Meat, Alternative Protein Theme & Macro Sins - which touched on the Alternative Protein Space from a Meta Perspective.
- KVP still has to catch-up with the latest fundamentals – previous quarter saw them continuing to invest in R&D & rebooting their European strategy, shifting from a partnership to driving it themselves. Next scheduled earnings date is after market on the Nov 10th
- The chart & stock price has been ugly for the bulls & a delight for the bears – the 1Q spike was the GameStop/WSB/SME squeeze, followed by a similar smaller wave in the end of 2Q.
- Low for the year is $91.55 lvls, with key resistance likely being in the $120-130 range, from these $102 lvls. Its worth noting the short-interest as a % of the float is c. 28%, with c. 8x to cover as of 14 days ago. So we could see some shorts being covered as we approach the earnings date & a squeeze if there is an upbeat surprise. BYND has had 4 consecutive negative months where it has dropped from 157.49 to 98.98 for the close of Oct, that’s a -37% fall.
- On the other hand, in just 1m alone Compass Pathways [CMPS] is up over +55%, in an example of where patience has paid off. We’ve touched on CMPS since its listing last year; Macro Dragon: Putting Compass on the Map... Mycelium, Magic Mushrooms + Psychedelics for Medicine & Treatment - with the key catalyst always being 2H21 on the results of the clinical trials.
- The chart is breaking out big time past $40 previous resistance lvl. At $46.66, the next likely key lvls to test will be $50 & the all time high of c. $62. This is not a chart that KVP would be short, unless there was a specific event-driven catalyst as a play. Its worth noting that CMPS is set to report on Nov 12.
- Lastly with at least no near-term earnings risk, we had AirBnB[ABNB] reporting yesterday, whilst it close dup +3.2% at 178.45, the results were post market & its currently looking indicated at 184.60/185.00, a c. +3-4% uplift on yest.’s close.
- The likely next key lvl to test on ABNB is $200, with support being offering at the $160 lvl. It will be interesting to see how it trades on this NFP Friday. Good wkd folks.
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Start<>End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.
This is The Way
Namaste,
KVP
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