Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
USD limping into quarter end, bears in control.
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Summary: The Asian session overnight brought fresh USD selling, particularly for USDJPY, perhaps on month-end and quarter-end fixing flows. As we await the important monthly US data on Thursday, we also look at GBPJPY in the longer term perspective.
Note: This is marketing material.
We saw a bit of fuss ahead of the weekend as US President Trump suspended trade talks with Canada over its moving forward with a digital services tax mostly aimed at US internet services giants like Meta, Netflix and Amazon. USDCAD was above 1.3750 at one point on Friday before settling well back below 1.3700, and then over the weekend Canada cancelled the tax before it could go into effect today, offering some further relief for CAD (and Canada, which has very little leverage in its confrontation with the US on trade issues).
Overnight, the big mover was the Japanese yen, which powered stronger across the board for no readily identifiable reason, with only month-end and quarter-end timing to point at as a possible driver of JPY-positive flows. Some thoughts on GBPJPY below after that pair hit five-month highs last week.
Looking ahead, it is tough to see what can derail the USD bears here besides some dramatic spike in volatility that drives position squaring. Friday’s hot core PCE inflation numbers did little, as we know to discount US inflation data amidst the await for a dovish Trump nominee for Fed Chair seemingly any day now (post July 30 FOMC meeting this heats up again if we have no cut at that meeting). As noted last week, China’s persistent dampening of USDCNH volatility may be a key ingredient holding back a broader USD weakening as AUDUSD, for example, can’t seem to break free to the upside.
Chart: GBPJPY
Trying to pull the focus a bit away from the major USD pairs, it’s worth having a look at GBPJPY, which has poked to new highs since early January last week and is at the highest end of the range since the meltdown in the summer of 2024 after the surprisingly large BoJ cut in July and the ensuing JPY carry trade meltdown. Clearly, we have seen a recent rebuilding of carry trades, if on a far smaller scale, with the recent strong global risk sentiment and the sense that no matter how high Japanese inflation remains, the Bank of Japan will stand pat and the Japanese Ministry of Finance is even moving to limit long JGB issuance. For its part, sterling may have received a boost recently as UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly looking at revisiting rules for new taxes on “non-doms” (UK non-domiciled residents have local residency but are from elsewhere), especially the 40% inheritance tax. But in the big picture, GBPJPY looks far too high if we consider the net international investment position (massively positive for Japan and massively negative for the UK), the negative fiscal impulse risk from the UK, where fiscal speed limiters are the very high yields. At the margin, worth considering as well that Japan may have to focus on its embarrassingly weak currency relative in trade negotiations with the US. Technically, bears don’t have a case until/unless we get in impulsive sell-off that cuts well back into the old range below 196.85.
The week ahead
For the week ahead, it is interesting to see both the incoming US data, and how the market treats it. The timing of the most important June jobs report is also unusual as US markets are closed Friday, bringing forward the data to Thursday, together with the ISM services survey that day. The German and Eurozone inflation prints today and tomorrow feel less pivotal as we probably need multiple surprises for a few months to change the plot for the ECB (expected to make one more cut later this year followed by pause).
FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.
The euro and Swiss franc at the top of the heap, with the US dollar at the weakest end of the spectrum. The JPY remains weak in the bigger picture, only showing a bit of a positive momentum shift.
Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs. EURCHF is not worth following for trend shifts until it gets outside of the 0.9300-0.9425 area. And as indicated by the dark shading, spot gold in USD terms is teetering here – needs to keep the 3,250 support to maintain an upside focus. Elsewhere, USDJPY trending status is perhaps the most pivotal.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Disclaimer