Market Quick Take – 3 December 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Wall Street rebounded on AI and industrial strength, Europe gained with banks and Bayer leading, while Hong Kong inched higher on consumers
• Volatility: VIX drifts toward mid-teens, SPX options price ~±0.9% weekly move, data busy day
• Digital assets: Bitcoin back near USD 93k; IBIT/ETHA rebound; altcoins firmer ahead of Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade
• Fixed Income: New highs for Japan’s long JGB’s. US Treasuries steady.
• Currencies: US dollar weakens, EURUSD near key resistance.
• Commodities: Silver’s choppy breakout extends; gold waits for a signal
• Macro events: US Nov. ADP Payrolls Change, US Nov. ISM Services

Macro headlines

• President Donald Trump said he plans to announce his pick to lead the Federal Reserve in early 2026 after considering around 10 candidates, hinted at National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as a possibility, and noted the nominee would require Senate confirmation.
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will set new bank and stablecoin rules, work with agencies on Genius Act capital and diversification requirements for stablecoin issuers, finalise Basel III Endgame, and refine the big‑bank surcharge to support market liquidity and affordable home ownership.
• The Kremlin said Vladimir Putin held “very useful” talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but no Ukraine deal was reached; aide Yuri Ushakov called the talks constructive, noted no territorial compromise, and said any Putin–Trump meeting hinges on progress as both sides intend to keep working.
• The US Economic Optimism Index climbed 9.1% to 47.9 in December, recovering from a 17-month low post-shutdown resolution but still below neutral. Six-Month Outlook rose 11%, Personal Financial Outlook increased 6.7%, and confidence in federal policies improved by 10.5%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0730 – Switzerland Nov. CPI
1315 – US Nov. ADP Payrolls Change
1500 – US Nov. ISM Services
1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report

Earnings this week

• Today: Salesforce Inc, Dollar Tree
• Thu: Kroger, Hewlett-Packard, Ulta Beauty, Dollar General

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US equities recovered from Monday’s selloff as the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.8%, and Dow about 200 points while traders looked ahead to the delayed September PCE inflation report and next week’s Fed meeting, where markets still price a 25 bp rate cut. A Bitcoin rebound and steadier AI and software names supported sentiment, with Nvidia up 0.9% and Palantir 1.9%, even as Broadcom slipped 1.2% on profit-taking. Boeing jumped 10.2% and Intel 8.7%, driving much of the index gain, while after-hours moves saw Marvell and American Eagle each surge around 10% on strong earnings signals. CrowdStrike slipped 1.5% despite lifting its revenue outlook, as investors locked in profits after a strong run into the print.
• Europe: European stocks closed higher as investors digested mixed inflation signals and a shifting global rate outlook, with the STOXX 50 up 0.3%. Eurozone inflation unexpectedly picked up to 2.2%, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged rather than pivot quickly to cuts. Banks outperformed as calmer Japanese bonds eased concerns over euro yields, lifting BNP Paribas and ING by nearly 2% and Santander by 1.5% after it sold a 3.5% stake in its Polish arm. Bayer surged over 12% after the US government urged the Supreme Court to hear its case seeking to limit Roundup-related lawsuits, and investors now watch upcoming ECB communication and growth data for clearer guidance into 2025.
• Asia: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.2% to 26,095, snapping prior losses as consumer and selected growth names supported the tape. Investors positioned ahead of China’s Central Economic Work Conference and the December Politburo meeting while searching for undervalued sectors, helped by October retail sales delivering a fourth straight and strongest rise since late 2023. Early gains faded as mainland markets softened before private purchasing managers’ data, and lingering property stress resurfaced as China Vanke sought a one-year bond extension. Giant Biogene jumped 8.2% on a buyback plan, BYD climbed 2.0% on firm electric vehicle sales, while Xpeng slid 5.9% after weak deliveries, keeping attention on policy support and earnings quality across China’s consumer and EV space.

Volatility

• Equity volatility eased again on Tuesday, with the VIX slipping to around 16.6 as the S&P 500 inched higher, pointing to a market that is alert but far from stressed. Attention today turns to a busy US data slate – ADP jobs, services PMIs, ISM services and oil inventories – plus earnings from Salesforce and Dollar Tree, which could all reshape expectations for growth and the Fed’s path into 2026.
• SPX options are pricing an intraday move of about ±0.46% (≈31 points) for today’s expiry and roughly ±0.9% (≈61 points) into Friday. Skew indicators, including a SKEW index near 145, still show a mild preference for downside protection over upside, consistent with a “hedge, don’t flee” mindset.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets continue to stabilise after last week’s sharp sell-off. Bitcoin trades back near USD 93,000, up almost 2% over the past day, supported by hopes of future Fed rate cuts and renewed interest after Vanguard’s decision to allow trading in crypto-related ETFs. Ethereum is holding above USD 3,000 as investors watch tonight’s Fusaka network upgrade, which aims to boost capacity and lower costs for Layer 2 rollups.
• IBIT and ETHA both bounced strongly, rising about 6–8% in line with the underlying coins. Major altcoins are firmer too, with Solana in the low USD 140s and modest gains in XRP and other large caps, even as regulatory headlines from the UK and Poland keep policy risk in focus.

Fixed Income

• Japanese long-dated government bonds came under fresh pressure overnight, with the 10-year and 30-year trading at marginal new post-GFC (17-year) highs in late Asian trading on Wednesday.
• US treasuries found support in a slow market yesterday, with the two-year treasury benchmark easing lower to 3.51% yesterday and trading below 3.50% in early trading in Europe on Wednesday. Ten-year treasuries likewise steadied after selling off, with the benchmark yield closing the day unchanged just under 4.09%.

Commodities

• Silver rose to a fresh record near USD 59, supported by a tight supply outlook, continued momentum buying and short covering following last Friday’s breakout above USD 54.50. The gold-silver ratio has slipped below 73, a level that has repeatedly offered support since 2021, pointing to the potential for further relative silver strength. Price action remains volatile, however, with overbought conditions posing a near-term risk for bulls.
• Gold has, for now, become a follower rather than the usual leader, with a sustained break above USD 4,250 needed to shift that dynamic. It trades unchanged in early European hours, with attention on key US data that could cement expectations for a metal-supportive 10 December rate cut.
• Oil held Tuesday’s decline as traders weighed prospects for an end to the war in Ukraine while watching for Trump’s next moves on Venezuela. Ahead of today’s EIA report, the API said US crude stockpiles rose by 2.5 million barrels last week. Overall, Brent and WTI remain confined to tight ranges as ample global supply continues to offset geopolitical risks.
• Corn and wheat prices rose after Putin threatened to cut of key exporter Ukraine’s access from the Black Sea in the wake of recent drone attacks on Russian vessels.

Currencies

• The dollar slipped yesterday and overnight and is back testing key support in the US dollar index near 99.00 and EURUSD resistance near 1.1650 with important US macro up today and possibly set to either establish local support for the greenback or see it breakdown further.
• USDJPY was only marginally lower in the Wednesday session in Asia as the JPY was weak in the crosses again, with concerns possibly driven by next steps the BoJ or Japan’s Ministry of Finance might take to wrestle with long Japanese bond yields rising to new 17-year highs, even as the BoJ is now seen far more likely to hike at its December 19 meeting (but 12-month forward total rate hike expectations have only edged higher).

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.