Market Quick Take – 10 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US notched fresh records on Fed-cut bets; Europe was flat as M&A chatter offset French politics; Asia firmed with Hong Kong and chips higher
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens, ETF outflows, SPX move ±24 pts, PPI focus
• Digital Assets: BTC $111k, ETH $4.3k, mixed ETF flows, Cboe futures, Nasdaq tokenization
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields, Italy 10-year yields traded below French 10-year yields for first time in modern era briefly yesterday.
• Currencies: USD firms as Euro and yen trade weaker. AUD also hitting its stride
• Commodities: Dip buyers lift gold as crude extends gains on sanctions and geopolitical risks
• Macro events: US Aug PPI and 10-year Notes Auction

Macro headlines

• US President Trump said that he is willing to impose new tariffs on India and China on their buying of Russian crude, but only on the condition that the EU joins the US in doing so, asking the bloc to impose tariffs as high as 100%.
• A judge blocked US President Trump from firing Fed governor Lisa Cook for now.
• The US economy added 911K fewer jobs through March 2025 than initially reported, the largest revision since 2000, per BLS. This -0.6% adjustment contrasts with a decade average of 0.2%. Leisure, professional services, retail, and wholesale trade saw major revisions, while transportation and utilities rose slightly. The data suggests a weaker labor market.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on the Federal Reserve to cut rates after the mentioned revision showed weaker hiring in the year through March, saying “It turns out that we didn’t have good facts”, and that “President Trump inherited a far worse economy than reported, and he’s right to say the Fed is choking off growth with high rates.”
• The Reuters Tankan index for Japanese manufacturers climbed to +13 in September 2025, the highest since August 2022, following a US tariff deal. Sentiment improved in autos and transport machinery despite sluggish domestic production, after a trade pact reduced US tariffs on key exports.
• French President Macron appointed Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister, following François Bayrou's resignation after a no-confidence vote. Lecornu is tasked with securing National Assembly support for the budget and ensuring political stability, focusing on independence and service to the people.
• The BoJ might consider a rate hike this year despite political factors, but will likely keep rates steady on September 19th, Bloomberg reports. Officials see progress toward the price target and the US trade deal easing growth risks, with some suggesting a potential hike by October. 

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Norway August CPI
1100 – US Sept MBA Mortgage Applications
1230 – US August PPI
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
1700 – US to sell USD 39 billion 10-year Notes

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

Earnings this week

• Today:Inditex
• Thu: Adobe, Kroger

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq 100 +0.4%, Dow +0.4% as rate-cut hopes persisted into CPI/PPI week. Apple −1.5% after its iPhone event underwhelmed on demand optics, while Alphabet +2.4% as ad and cloud momentum supported megacaps. UnitedHealth jumped 8.6% after updated Medicare Stars and enrollment signals improved visibility. Oracle rose ~28% after hours on cloud bookings strength, setting up software tape today.
• Europe: STOXX 50 +0.1% and STOXX 600 +0.1% as basic resources steadied the tape despite French political noise and M&A activity supported gains; FTSE 100 +0.2%. ASML +1.0% after its strategic stake in Mistral highlighted AI-sovereignty angles for lithography and software, while Siemens −0.9% lagged amid industrial rotation; BP +1.3% tracked crude. Anglo American rose 9% on a $20.2B deal to acquire Teck Resources, while Italian banks gained after Banca MPS boosted its Mediobanca stake to 62.3% in a €16B transaction. Focus turns to the ECB tomorrow and France’s cabinet reshuffle headlines.
• Asia: Tone firmer into China inflation and the Fed. Nikkei 225 +0.5% and Hang Seng +1.2% as tech led; mainland CSI 300 +0.2%. Samsung Electronics +1.4% extended chip gains as Korea outperformed, while sentiment in Hong Kong improved on policy-easing hopes.

Volatility

• Volatility remains calm despite upcoming macro data. The VIX closed at 15.04, still in the mid-teens, with the S&P 500 up 0.27%. Very short-term risk looks quieter still: the VIX1D slipped under 9, typical of low-headline days. The upward-sloping VIX curve signals little urgency for near-term hedging. Notably, VIX-linked ETFs saw heavy outflows (−$80m), showing investors pulling back from volatility protection. For today, options pricing implies an expected ±24-point move in the SPX (~0.37%), keeping volatility firmly in check as traders watch US PPI and bond auctions later in the day.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin trades steady near $111,900, with Ethereum at $4,314, as crypto markets remain orderly. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew inflows (+$23m), led by IBIT, while Ethereum flows stayed more mixed after ETHA’s large outflow earlier in the week. Altcoins show scattered strength, with Solana +1% and XRP flat. In a structural shift, Cboe announced plans to launch 10-year Bitcoin and Ethereum “continuous futures” in November, bringing perpetual-style contracts into a US-regulated framework. At the same time, Nasdaq’s filing to allow tokenized securities trading highlights the push to integrate blockchain settlement with traditional markets. Together, these moves underscore how regulation is opening space for deeper crypto-TradFi convergence.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries sold off yesterday despite the hefty negative US payrolls revisions (see above), breaking the recent run of strength. This despite a very strong auction of 3-year treasuries, which saw very strong foreign demand. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose six basis points to 3.5% and the 10-yea benchmark rose four basis points to 4.08%.
• Short Japanese Government Bond yields jumped higher to open trading in Tokyo after a Bank of Japan report said there was the chance of a rate hike this year despite the political situation, in part as the trade deal with the US has removed some growth risks. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield jumped two basis points at the open, but fell back a basis point by late trading in Tokyo.
• The Germany-France 10-year yield spread widened yesterday, trading well over fivebasis points wider at one point to 84 basis points before settling a bit lower at 81 basis points. Perhaps more noteworthy was that Italian 10-year debt briefly traded at lower yields than French 10-year debt yesterday for the first time, at least since the introduction of the euro.

Commodities

• Gold dropped USD 50 on Tuesday as signs of rally fatigue and pre-CPI profit-taking emerged. The setback followed a USD 350 uninterrupted surge since 22 August, raising the risk of a pullback. Even so, overnight dip-buying returned, supported by expectations of rate cuts, concerns over Fed independence, and lingering economic and geopolitical risks.
• Silver and platinum have lagged gold’s blistering rally this month, as incoming rate cuts—while supportive for gold—are viewed as a response to economic weakness, dampening the outlook for metals whose demand is partly tied to industrial use
• Crude rose for a third straight day, lifted by Trump’s threat of tariffs on India and China—if joined by the EU—as leverage against Russia, and by an Israeli strike in Doha targeting Hamas’ leadership that heightened Middle East tensions. Gains came despite the latest OPEC+ output hike, with markets doubting full implementation given capacity constraints and the need for some members to compensate for past overproduction.
• Diesel futures in New York and London are this month’s best-performing commodities after gold, supported by tight northwest European supplies, backwardation in benchmark contracts, and ARA stockpiles running well below the 10-year seasonal average

Currencies

• The US dollar firmed slightly yesterday after briefly touching new lows and despite the BLS payrolls revisions that showed an over-reporting of 911k jobs through March of this year. USDJPY has rebounded from 146.31 yesterday to as high as 147.50 overnight before settling a bit lower. EURUSD briefly traded below 1.1700 overnight after a high of 1.1778 yesterday before rebounding to 1.1715 in early European hours.
• AUD was more resilient versus the major currencies after AUDUSD threatened the highs of the year at 0.6625 yesterday and has rebounded from a sell-off in the US session yesterday to trade back above 0.6600. EURAUD hit a new four-week low overnight as it trades 1.7722 after a high last month of 1.8158.