Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: The ratio of the VDE fossil fuel energy ETF to ICLN, a renewable energy ETF, jumps from 7 to 12.
The oil and gas industry came roaring out of the financial crisis after 2009, returning some 131% from 2008 until the peak in June 2014 as China pulled the world economy out of its historic credit-led recession. Since then, the industry has been hurt by two powerful forces. The first was the advent of US shale gas and rapid strides in globalising natural gas supply chains via LNG. Then came the US shale oil revolution, which saw the US become the world’s largest oil and petroleum liquids producer, dramatically pushing down prices and return on capital.
The second force impacting the investment outlook for the traditional fossil fuel energy sector, particularly in the long term, has been the increasing political and popular capital behind fighting climate change, causing a massive surge in demand for renewable energy. The “Greta Thunberg” movement has recently increased global awareness, to a level where investors are desperately looking for green energy investment opportunities and large sovereign wealth funds are even reducing their oil and gas holdings to defend against the change of sentiment on all CO2-emitting energy sources.
The combined forces of lower prices and investors avoiding the black energy sector has pushed the equity valuation on traditional energy companies to a 23% discount to clean energy companies. In 2020, we see the tables turning for the investment outlook as OPEC extends production cuts, unprofitable US shale outfits slow output growth and demand rises from Asia once again.
And not only will the oil and gas industry be a surprising winner in 2020 — the clean energy industry will simultaneously suffer a wake-up call. Investors must realise that for clean energy companies, the average return on invested capital versus the weight-adjusted cost of that capital is a terrible 0.5, meaning that the industry is actually destroying capital. The VDE (Vanguard Energy ETF) / ICLN (iShares Global Clean Energy ETF) ratio jumps from 7 to 12 in 2020 as clean energy investment doesn’t pay while dirty energy does.
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)