The Week Ahead: Prepare for US earnings season + Opec meeting and Japan leadership election fallout

Q3 is behind and it’s almost the start of earnings season on Wall Street. Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo are now the unofficial start of earnings on Thursday, with BlackRock to follow on Friday before the real action starts from the following week.

Another key question facing investors is how long will the US government shutdown last. US data will likely be delayed until it’s open again, which could mean we don’t get some high frequency employment stats this week.

Opec+ meets on Sunday to decide output hikes after a sharp correction for crude prices.

Elsewhere we look to the fallout from Japan, where on Saturday the country’s ruling LDP party elected a new leader and prime minister.

And this week we hear from leading central bankers with Fed chair Jay Powell ECB president Christine Lagarde and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey all due to speak.

Finally, will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Monday, 6 October

Early on during the Asian session expect some movement in JPY crosses as the market reacts to Saturday’s LDP leadership election.

Later we hear from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. Sterling and gilts will be on watch for signs of fresh dovishness, after he recently suggested the Monetary Policy Committee could cut interest rates faster if the jobs market slows. ECB President Christine Lagarde will testify in the European Parliament.

The Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, which runs through to Wednesday.

Tuesday, 7 October

Could be some nuggets from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who’s speaking at a fireside chat at the MFA Policy Outlook 2025 conference. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is also due to speak.

Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins

Wednesday, 8 October

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is forecast to cut interest rates and release the monetary policy review. Fed meeting minutes from its September gathering are due but could be delayed by the shutdown.

Thursday, 9 October

Earnings season kicks off with reports from Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP).

 DAL is the flag bearer for the airline industry – in July the stock jumped on a positive update as it reinstated its full-year profit outlook as bookings stabilised. On-again, off-again tariffs and a tough consumer backdrop weighed earlier in the year but lately there have been clear signs of improvement. Delta expects 2025 adjusted earnings of between $5.25 and $6.25 a share, down from a January forecast of more than $7.35 a share when it predicted 2025 would be its best ever year.

PEP is another stock that’s a tariff play – last quarter the stock rose on its earnings update after detailing more about its turnaround plan. CEO Ramon Laguarta  said the firm wouldhit the low-end of its long-term organic revenue growth target of 4% to 6% “in the next few quarters”.

Fed speakers galore - Chair Jerome Powell delivers pre-recorded remarks at a
community banking conference, where Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are also due to speak. Fed Governor Michael Barr is also due to speak. Weekly unemployment claims figures are due but may not be released due to the shutdown.

Friday, 10 October

The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced – will it be Donald Trump?

Elsewhere we look to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys, plus potentially a credit rating report for the UK, though this is unlikely to see any change ahead of the Budget next month. For more on this click here.