Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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London Quick Take – 3 Oct - Stocks keep calm and carry on, jobs report delayed, Tesla is not a car company part 420
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
Key Points
- FTSE 100, S&P 500, Stoxx 600 all trade at record highs
- US government shutdown delays nonfarm payrolls report
- Oil heads for its worst week in more than 3 months ahead of Opec+ decision on Sunday
- Tesla slumps despite strong delivery numbers
Keep calm and carry on: There is no upsetting this bull run. (famous last words?!) Bear markets, let’s remember, are caused by recessions and, so far, the US economy keeps ticking along...even with a government shutdown the stock market made new highs. Partly that is because markets usually do look through shutdowns, partly it’s because this remains a late-cycle grind up with momentum and FOMO driving prices higher.
No nonfarm payrolls later due to the government shutdown, so it is kind of tricky for the FX traders and bond markets. Stocks don’t seem to be mind with Nvidia leading the S&P 500 to a fresh high yesterday at 6,715 at the close, while the Nasdaq Composite hit 22,900 at high before closing just a tad lower.
It should be stressed that this time could be different – the longer the shutdown goes on the harder this game of chicken gets and the deeper the economic damage could become. If we see some dislocations in bond market prices we could see this feed into volatility in the stock market. The worry in not having the BLS figures is arguably that we could be storing up risk for when they do land. The labour market is looking hard to figure out this time. Challenger job cuts fell in September but YTD it’s the highest since 2020 and hiring is at its weakest level since 2009 so far this year. But unemployment is steady at about 4.3% according to the Chicago Fed – lower supply means the Fed needs far fewer jobs to be created to stay level.
European shares are catching on – the FTSE 100 was positive early doors Friday as it touched a record high by a few fractions of a point. We can see 9,500 taking shape and ultimately there are ample reasons to think that 10k on the FTSE 100 by the end of the year is entirely doable. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4% to hit a fresh record high, now up 2.8% for the week.
OBR forecasts are due – but won’t be published (leaks likely of course!) and set to show a big fiscal black hole because we are nowhere near as productive a lot as we thought. We saw gilt demand with yesterday’s 10yr auction seeing the weakest demand since May, whilst the yield got off at the highest for a 10yr auction since January. Gilt yields rose with the 10yr pushing up to 4.750% before easing back. More on all this here. And a look at the Budget from a personal finance and investing perspective here.
Oil is on track for its biggest fall in more than three months and broken down to its weakest since early June. A fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery is offering some scant pickings for bulls but the main driver of the price action is fears about Opec+ pumping more crude, with a decision on November due this weekend. The cartel is expected to approve an increase in output of around 140 bpd on Sunday. On the continuous contract for Brent we are looking at the 76.4% retracement of the May to July rally at $64 to hold or it could be back to $62.50, the 30 May low.
Gold has pushed back up after yesterday’s wobble...the pretty classic doji on yesterday’s candlestick indicates indecision – I would tend to favour short-term pullbacks and consolidation being the order of the day; long term still looks positive.
Not a car company...the value lies in robotics and AI...so Tesla fell sharply after it reported it delivered 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter, up 7.4% from 462,890 a year earlier. This exceeded even the most bullish forecasts investors having been looking for around 444k vehicles for the July–September period. Having opened up at $470, the stock appeared to be subject of profit-taking as it subsequently fell 5% for the session - it's been on a monster run. Shares have been on a monster rally, doubling since the April lows.
Apple rose after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the tech giant, citing a stronger-than-expected start to the iPhone 17 cycle. Momentum is behind this upgrade cycle.
No nonfarm payrolls later due to the government shutdown, so it is kind of tricky for the FX traders and bond markets. Stocks don’t seem to be mind with Nvidia leading the S&P 500 to a fresh high yesterday at 6,715 at the close, while the Nasdaq Composite hit 22,900 at high before closing just a tad lower.
It should be stressed that this time could be different – the longer the shutdown goes on the harder this game of chicken gets and the deeper the economic damage could become. If we see some dislocations in bond market prices we could see this feed into volatility in the stock market. The worry in not having the BLS figures is arguably that we could be storing up risk for when they do land. The labour market is looking hard to figure out this time. Challenger job cuts fell in September but YTD it’s the highest since 2020 and hiring is at its weakest level since 2009 so far this year. But unemployment is steady at about 4.3% according to the Chicago Fed – lower supply means the Fed needs far fewer jobs to be created to stay level.
European shares are catching on – the FTSE 100 was positive early doors Friday as it touched a record high by a few fractions of a point. We can see 9,500 taking shape and ultimately there are ample reasons to think that 10k on the FTSE 100 by the end of the year is entirely doable. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4% to hit a fresh record high, now up 2.8% for the week.
OBR forecasts are due – but won’t be published (leaks likely of course!) and set to show a big fiscal black hole because we are nowhere near as productive a lot as we thought. We saw gilt demand with yesterday’s 10yr auction seeing the weakest demand since May, whilst the yield got off at the highest for a 10yr auction since January. Gilt yields rose with the 10yr pushing up to 4.750% before easing back. More on all this here. And a look at the Budget from a personal finance and investing perspective here.
Oil is on track for its biggest fall in more than three months and broken down to its weakest since early June. A fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery is offering some scant pickings for bulls but the main driver of the price action is fears about Opec+ pumping more crude, with a decision on November due this weekend. The cartel is expected to approve an increase in output of around 140 bpd on Sunday. On the continuous contract for Brent we are looking at the 76.4% retracement of the May to July rally at $64 to hold or it could be back to $62.50, the 30 May low.
Gold has pushed back up after yesterday’s wobble...the pretty classic doji on yesterday’s candlestick indicates indecision – I would tend to favour short-term pullbacks and consolidation being the order of the day; long term still looks positive.
Not a car company...the value lies in robotics and AI...so Tesla fell sharply after it reported it delivered 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter, up 7.4% from 462,890 a year earlier. This exceeded even the most bullish forecasts investors having been looking for around 444k vehicles for the July–September period. Having opened up at $470, the stock appeared to be subject of profit-taking as it subsequently fell 5% for the session - it's been on a monster run. Shares have been on a monster rally, doubling since the April lows.
Apple rose after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the tech giant, citing a stronger-than-expected start to the iPhone 17 cycle. Momentum is behind this upgrade cycle.
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