Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Investor Content Strategist
US-China trade talks are the main focus for investors as they continue in London after a “fruitful” session on Monday. It’s hoped that the deal with see the US ease export restrictions of chips while China will release its rare earth minerals. A good outcome could send Wall Street to a fresh record high, with the S&P 500 finishing marginally higher on Monday a few points above the 6k level. Apparent concessions for Western automakers last week suggest a deal is in the offing.
The FTSE 100 is also eyeing a record despite all the macro uncertainties...seems investors are keen to find some value with the US stock market hitting 200% on the Buffett indicator (market cap to GDP). The blue chips rallied almost half a percent early on Tuesday to 8,873 – the record intra-day high is 8,908.82, but the key is the closing high at 8,871.31 - intraday for show, closes for dough.
Takeovers remain the focus for the target-rich environment that is the FTSE. Spectris jumped 64% on a takeover bid, and Alphawave soared about 20% after Qualcomm’s offer. The UK market continues to lose listed companies to foreign buyers, raising questions about domestic investment, which is going to be thrust into fresh relief this week with UK Spending Review – does it entail (in the autumn Budget) further tax changes that hit investment?
Tesla shares rallied 5% to pare losses after their recent tumble as President Trump indicated he would keep his Tesla, as well as the Starlink service at the White House. After a very public bust-up, Trump sound in more emollient mood as he said he’d have “no problem” with speaking to Musk, his erstwhile ally. The rally came despite a downgrade from Baird which warned of the fresh uncertainty for the stock given the Trump relationship has flipped from a tailwind to headwind. Baird also expressed scepticism around the robotaxi launch. Dan Ives at Wedbush, top Tesla fanboy, stuck to his $500 price target and said the Trump administration would still fast track key regulatory hurdles for Tesla.
Meanwhile, Filtronic shares leapt 10% this morning after it announced a new multi-million order from SpaceX...it had been swept up in the Musk-Trump feud as investors worried about whether SpaceX would lose key US government contracts. This helps provide some salve
GameStop reports earnings after the market close tonight. It’s expected to report earnings per share of $0.08 on $750mn in revenue...options markets suggest GME shares could swing up to 11% either way on the earnings report. Shares have rallied about 40% since the late March lows and investors will be keen to see if this earnings report shows clear momentum. Key things to look for are the Bitcoin strategy and what tailwinds the company can expect from the release of the Nintendo Switch 2.
On the data front, there’s someunwelcome employment numbers from the UK this morning. Unemployment rose to a 4yr high at 4.6%, payrolls fell sharply and vacancies are down...the only real good news for the Bank of England was that wage growth, unsurprisingly, also declined as the market softened.
Tomorrow’s Spending Review could have massive implications for people’s savings, pensions and investments.
It’s the first big multi-year spending review outside of Covid since 2015, so it’s got the potential to have long-term consequences for the government’s spending commitments and by extension, for people’s taxes and allowances.
Everything about this is political – does the chancellor want to lean into welfare cuts – probably not. We know that defence is being earmarked for more cash. We know that the chancellor will be sticking to her fiscal rules resolutely, although she could tweak them to accommodate more spending. The easiest way to balance the books is tax hikes – it's no surprise that given some big spending cuts required we are also hearing concerns about potential changes to tax on investments in the autumn.
Rules on workplace pensions and salary sacrifice have been mentioned – ultimately this could see companies make schemes less generous, which only serves to underline the importance of employees looking to make provisions for themselves via a SIPP. Savers have already been hit by cuts to dividend allowances and higher rates – it would be concerning if the government were to squeeze ordinary investors on this front further given the importance rightly being placed on encouraging investment in UK equities.
Finally, US inflation expectations are retreating. NY Fed consumer inflation expectations dropped to 3.2% in May 2025 from 3.6% in April. Year-ahead commodity price expectations fell for gas, medical care, college education, and rent, while food prices rose to 5.5%, the highest since October 2023. US CPI inflation figures are due tomorrow.
For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.