Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investor Content Strategist
Global Overview
Japan was the best-performing equity market with the TOPIX up 6.2% for the month, following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the country’s first female PM. She is expected to back both fiscal and monetary expansion, which hit the yen, further adding to gains for the country’s exporters.
Meanwhile the MSCI Asia ex-Japan climbed 4.5% and emerging markets (MSCI EM) rose 4.2%. Easing of trade tensions towards the end of the month specifically boosted South Korea and Taiwan, where semiconductor industries are heavyweight components which are reliant on rare earth metals and are key links in global tech supply chains.
UK shares did well as the FTSE All-Share rose 3.7%, while the US (S&P 500) trailed with a rise of 2.3%, as did European equities (MSCI Europe ex-UK) with a 2.1% gain.
US
The S&P 500 rose 2.3% and Dow Jones industrials climbed 2.5% for the month. The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite rose 4.7% as the AI trade led the gains, with notably strong performance for AMD and Micron. Earnings growth was better-than-expected with about 80% of the roughly 300 or so S&P 500 companies beat expectations. Towards the end of the month easing of trade tensions with China boosted sentiment, but hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve saw a backup in Treasury yields that pressured stocks in the final week of the month.
The US continues to dominate the attention - most of Saxo clients’ most popular stocks were in the AI space as well as quantum computing and cryptocurrency names.
UK
The FTSE 100 recorded a new all-time high as it notched a gain of almost 4% for the month. A decline in gilt yields was a support with the 10yr gilt yield shedding about 30bps as the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, sounded dovish and inflation was lower than expected at what is expected to be the peak for the cycle. Gilt yields may have also come down as speculation mounts about the contractionary fiscal impulse expected from the 26 November Budget. A weaker sterling further supported the globally oriented FTSE 100.
Most Traded Stocks at Saxo: US tech and AI trade dominate still
Top Stocks - Most Traded | Buy% |
NVIDIA Corp. | 52% |
Amazon.com Inc. | 55% |
Meta Platforms Inc. | 68% |
Tesla Inc. | 52% |
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | 49% |
Palantir Technologies Inc. | 56% |
Alphabet Inc. Class A | 55% |
Apple Inc. | 48% |
Microsoft Corp. | 57% |
Vanguard S&P 500 Dist UCITS ETF | 67% |
Intel Corp. | 43% |
Rigetti Computing, Inc. | 53% |
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR | 53% |
IonQ Inc. | 60% |
Strategy Inc. | 73% |
D-Wave Quantum Inc. | 59% |
iShares Physical Gold ETC | 61% |
Broadcom Inc. | 55% |
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC | 55% |
CoreWeave Inc. | 56% |
Most Popular Stocks - stocks and ETFs with strongest % buy ratio in October (minimum # of trades required)
Crypto stocks rise to the top
Top Stocks - Most Popular | Buy% |
BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc | 78% |
Strategy Inc. | 73% |
Meta Platforms Inc. | 68% |
Netflix Inc. | 67% |
Vanguard S&P 500 Dist UCITS ETF | 67% |
Quantum Computing Inc | 66% |
Beyond Meat Inc. | 62% |
iShares Physical Gold ETC | 61% |
IonQ Inc. | 60% |
Energy Fuels Inc. | 60% |
Nebius Group NV | 59% |
D-Wave Quantum Inc. | 59% |
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. B | 59% |
MP Materials Corp. | 58% |
IREN Ltd. | 58% |
PayPal Holdings Inc. | 58% |
Microsoft Corp. | 57% |
Rocket Lab Corporation | 57% |
CoreWeave Inc. | 56% |
Palantir Technologies Inc. | 56% |