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Morning Brew September 5 2025
Summary: All Eyes on us US Jobs data
Good morning!
We are heading into the Nonfarm Payroll with the S&P 500 at record highs. Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 6502, the Dow was up 0.8%, the S&P 500 up 0.8%, and the Nasdaq up 1%. Amazon launched an AI shopping tool and gained more than 4%, while Salesforce lost nearly 5% due to a disappointing outlook. Broadcom gained $14 after good results, and American Eagle Outfitters shares jumped 38% following an "unprecedented" sales boom from its new ad campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney.
The positive sentiment was largely attributed to a lack of anything that could prevent the Fed from cutting rates in two weeks. The ADP data was low, and productivity and unit labor costs were also no concern. While there is a lot of data today, the focus is on the US Nonfarm Payrolls at 14:30 CET. The estimate is for 75k jobs with a fairly wide distribution: the high estimate is 144k and the lowest is 0. Goldman Sachs is calling for 60k. The unemployment rate is expected at 4.3% and average earnings at 3.7%. Also closely watched will be any revision to last month's data, which was reported at 73k.
Yields receded further, with the US 10-year at 4.15% and the 30-year at 4.84%. EUR/USD is at 1.1670, USD/JPY at 148.18, and GBP/USD at 1.3450.
This morning, a September cut is fully priced in at 99%, and the December leaves are being traded 60 basis points below the current level. A shift to either less than 2 or a full 3 would tip the scale. Gold and silver are trading at 3560 and 40.85, near the highs. A dovish NFP could spark the next jump, while a high number could trigger a consolidation.
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Charu on Broadcom:
- Strong AI momentum – Q3 AI revenue surged 63% YoY to $5.2bn, with Q4 guided to $6.2bn.
- OpenAI partnership – A $10bn custom chip deal (mass production in 2026) secures multi-year revenue visibility and reduces dependence on Nvidia.
- Strategic edge – Broadcom’s “picks-and-shovels” positioning spanning custom chips, Ethernet networking leadership, and VMware’s enterprise AI software makes it a central player in AI infrastructure.
Read the full aticle here: How the OpenAI deal repositions Broadcom in the AI space
Enjoy a great trading day and if you are set up for Autoinvest, you will add to your ETF holdings today.
Friday
- De Industrial Orders
- UK Retail Sales
- EU GDP
- US Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment rate