Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Morning Brew September 3 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Savings Plans to the rescue?
Good morning!
Traders were nervous yesterday as yields rose and there was great uncertainty around tariffs. The ISM showed that the US remains in contraction. The Dow lost 0.6%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.7%, the Nasdaq dropped more than 2%, and the GER40 also declined by more than 2%.
Kraft Heinz announced its plan to separate into two companies, a move not celebrated by the markets, causing the stock to lose 7%. In contrast, Google will not be broken up, and its shares soared after hours.
Yields are trading higher across the world, causing significant FX moves. The USD Index rose from 97.54 on Monday to 98.60, fell to 98.04, and then rose again to 98.45. EURUSD is now at 1.1630, while GBP was the biggest loser of the day, down 1.35% to 1.3365. USDJPY is at 148.63, and the Bank of Japan has stated it is watching FX markets. Gold and Silver had a volatile day and are now rather high at 3535 and 40.75, respectively. Platinum is at 1400 again.
Looking ahead, we are expecting important data, including International PMI, US Factory Orders, and the JOLTS Job Openings. A factor that will be closely watched is whether the saving plan flow can save the day again. Retail investors are becoming more and more important in the stock market, and the beginning of the month is when the savings plans kick in. September is statistically the weakest month of the year.
It was a really bad day for Donald Trump in the US legal system:
- A federal appeals court deemed Trump's tariffs illegal, requiring suspension by October 14. Trump will appeal to the Supreme Court, possibly leading to a prolonged legal battle.
- The firing of U.S. Federal Trade Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter was reversed.
- The deportation of Venezuelan citizens based on the Alien Enemies Act was deemed illegal.
In international news, Russia, China, and North Korea projected unity at China’s largest ever military parade. Additionally, China reported the strongest growth in the services PMI since May 2024.
Wednesday
- International PMI
- US Factory Orders
- JOLTS job opening
Thursday
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, Tade Balance
- Canada Trde Balance
Friday
- De Industrial Orders
- UK Retail Sales
- EU GDP
- US Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment rate
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