Morning Brew September 22 2025

Good Morning,

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.4%, closing the week with a 1.1% gain. The S&P 500 increased by 0.5% on Friday, ending the week up by 1.2%, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.7% for the day and 2.2% for the week. All three indexes achieved record closing highs for the second consecutive day. Apple saw a notable rise of 3.2% following a price target increase from J.P. Morgan, and gains were also observed in Palantir Technologies and Oracle. The volume on U.S. exchanges was substantial, reaching 27.8 billion shares due to the quarterly expiry.

The Russell 2000 index, despite hitting a new all-time high earlier in the day, ended as the day's loser. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari indicated that job market risks justified this week's rate cut and suggested further reductions at the central bank's upcoming meetings.

The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday, continuing its rebound against most major currencies. This movement came as traders assessed the near-term outlook following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week, which hinted at gradual easing in the future. The British pound was among the weakest performers among G10 currencies, reflecting investor concerns over British finance minister Rachel Reeves' ability to manage the budget. The USD Index rose to 97.65, with the Euro ending the week at 1.1745, the British pound at 1.3465, and the USD/JPY at 147.95.

In the commodities market, both gold and silver saw gains on Friday, with silver outperforming with a rise of over 3%. Gold closed the week at 3683, silver at 43.08, and platinum at 1404. Precious metals continue their rally, gold is testing the 3700 and Silver 43.70.

Following the Federal Reserve's rate cut on Wednesday, the next meeting is scheduled for the end of October, with a 90% probability of another cut. This week, the Swiss National Bank's rate decision is anticipated, with no move into fully negative territory expected. Institutions currently pay the SNB nearly 25 basis points to hold larger sums, and the rate is projected to remain stable through next year.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week may not be the most eventful in terms of data. Key highlights include the Swiss National Bank's decision, U.S. durable goods orders, and the U.S. PCE deflator on Friday. Politically, entrenched positions in the U.S. could cause market concerns, while Russian saber-rattling and high tensions in the Middle East remain significant. Reliable data on the impact of tariffs on Brazil, India, and Switzerland will be closely watched. Traders are expected to adjust their positions as the quarter progresses and towards the latter half of the week.

Headlines

• The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown at the end of the month as the Senate rejects a stopgap funding bill and goes on break.
• Progress has been made on the TikTok deal between Trump and Xi, with plans to meet in South Korea.
• The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.39% for the week ending September 12, the lowest since early October 2024. This has led to a strong quarter for house builders, with DR Horton up over 30%, KB Home and Toll Brothers more than 20%. Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot are also up about 20% and 13%, respectively, according to Reuters.
• A federal judge dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump's $15 billion defamation lawsuit against the New York Times, calling it "decidedly improper and impermissible."
• Oracle is eyeing a $20 billion AI cloud computing deal with Meta.
• A cyberattack on a provider of check-in and boarding systems disrupted operations on Saturday at several major European airports, including London's Heathrow.

Monday September 22

• China Rate Decision
• EU Consumer Confidence

Tuesday September 23

• International PMI

  Wednesday September 24

  Australia PMI

• DE IFO Index
• Speakers: Mary Daly

Thursday September 25

• Swiss SNB Decision
• US Durable Goods Orders
• Initial Jobless Claims
• Speakers: Goolspee, Williams, Daly,

Friday September 26

• US PCE Deflator
• Canada GDP
• University of Michigan Consumer Conficdence
• Speakers: Baqrkin
• Erik goes on Holiday