Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Black Friday - will markets move?
Good Morning,
Markets moved little yesterday as was to be expected – today should be a low volume day with many traders and investors off and black Friday pulling the attention elsewhere.
US 10 Year Yields are lower at 3.65 which could boost sentiment and maybe bring us a strong close. The US500 has the 200 day average in grasp.
The USD Index is below 10.6 at 105.88, EURUSD at 1.0408, GBPUSD at 1.2097 and USDJPY at 138.61. this has been a significant technical level and Japanese inflation was just released at the highest level in 40 Years – an interesting setup, especially with the 200d moving Average in EURUSD in View. If we see more USD weakness, Gold could breach the 1765 and Silver firmly tackle the 21.50.
German GDP at 8:00, French Unemployment at 12:00
Key News are the lockdowns in China, more and more areas are locking down on high corona numbers.
Apple is the stock to watch today as worker protests and unrest could cause IPhone production to fall by as much as 30%.
Tesla is recalling 80.000 cars in China.
Credit Suisse is offering 889 million new shares available to existing investors at 2.52 Swiss francs per share
Trade safely.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.