Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Quo Vadis
Good Morning,
Traders and investors had a bit if a hard time digesting the strong rise in risk sentiment last week, profit taking, coupled with the limited fallout of the FTX collapse, News Amazon will cut staff and comments from Fed speakers on the likely path from here.
Indexes gave up a little ground yesterday and the Dow fell by 0.63%, S&P 500 by 0.89%, Nasdaq by 1.12%, over night we see them rise again and the US 500 is at 3977, the USTECH100 at 11.800 and the GER 40 14333.
US 10 year rates are trading below 3.90 and the Terminal Rate remains at 4.90 (in May/June 2023)
The USDINDEX EURUSD is just below 107 as EURUSD 1.0330. USDJPY 140.30 and GBPUSD at 1.1780. Gold and Silver are high at 1770 and 22.
Bitcoin seems to stabilize above 16k and is currently trading at 16700.
The direction from here will depend on ne next key data points, today the EU GDP a, the German ZEW US PPI expected at 8.3% , tomorrow the UK CPI/ PPI, US Retail Sales and Canada`s inflation.
Thursday the EU HICP expected at 10.7% and Friday the UK Retail sales.
The G20 has the potential to deliver possible surprises and Donald Trump has announced an important announcement for today where it is expected he will announce his running for the presidency again in 2024 – Even though he is the clear loser of the midterms.
Key Earnings:
Headlines:
Trade Safely
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.