Morning Brew September 12 2025

Good Morning,

The Nasdaq declined by 0.25% yesterday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.2%. The Dow was the strongest among the major U.S. indexes, rising 1.2%. An earnings miss by CoreWeave led to a 16% drop, and news that SoftBank divested its Nvidia shares weighed on tech sentiment. Nevertheless, the combined weight of companies closely tied to the AI boom—Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Broadcom, Oracle, and Alphabet—is now approaching 30% of the S&P 500. The Dow reached a new all-time high near 48,000, with the rally being broad-based. Pfizer and Merck led the gains, up 4.8% and 4.4%, respectively.

Trading volumes were relatively low at 15 billion shares, possibly due to Veterans Day. The 20-day average is about 30% higher.

In Europe, the EuroStoxx 50 also reached an all-time high. The GER40 is well above 24,000 but still 500 points below its record.

Yields traded slightly lower, with 10-year Treasuries at 4.08%. The USD Index held at 99.56. EUR/USD is at 1.1580, GBP/USD at 1.3130, and USD/JPY at 154.65. Gold and silver remain elevated at 4,115 and 51.35, respectively. Bitcoin retreated to 103,000.

According to ADP Research, U.S. private employers cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the last four weeks ending October 25, 2025, highlighting a slowdown in the labor market.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expects U.S. growth to rebound to 3–4% by early 2026, despite the recent government shutdown, which could reduce growth by 1–1.5 percentage points. He predicts some losses will be permanent, but growth should recover next year.

Switzerland is nearing a 15% tariff agreement with the U.S., which could be finalized by Thursday or Friday, pending President Trump’s approval.

Charu comments AI bubble vs. backbone: How Asia may be an AI value play?  AI valuations in the U.S. remain stretched — even small disappointments could trigger sharp moves. In our view, that makes it worth looking at Asia, the real backbone of AI: 70% of global chipmaking, 90% of AI memory, and most advanced packaging capacity sit across Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.

Key upcoming events with market-moving potential include German inflation data at 8:00 CET and Cisco earnings. There is also an expected vote to end the longest shutdown in U.S. history. While passage is likely, any setback could weigh on sentiment.

Larger questions, such as the state of U.S. inflation and employment, remain unclear until reliable data is available after the lockdown. Nvidia earnings, scheduled for a week from today, will be very important. The backward looking PE is 47 while the forward looking is 31!

Trade safely!!

Wednesday November 12

• DE Inflation
• On, Cisco,

  Thursday November 13

• AU Employment data, UK GDP, US Initial Jobless claims,
• Walt Disney, JD.Com,

  Friday November 14

• China Retail sales, France CPI, EU GDP,