Morning Brew May 26 2026

Good morning

A very unclear situation in the Middle East has markets in a vice. Over the weekend, it looked like there was progress toward peace, or at least a ceasefire accompanied by an opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Today, however, that seems to be at least delayed, as the U.S. attacked missile ranges and ships laying mines. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that negotiating a deal with Iran could "take a few days," quashing hopes for an imminent end to the conflict.

Any positive or negative news will move markets around. For traders, this is a source of volatility; investors should aim to avoid the noise.

Oil has rebounded from yesterday’s lows, indexes have slipped from their highs, yields are lower, and precious metals have fallen from yesterday’s levels.

The US 500 is 50 points above Friday’s close at 7,520, the GER40 is near its all-time high, trading at 25,300, the Japan 225 is at 65k, and Bitcoin is at 76k. Gold and silver are at 4,525 and 76.40. For indexes, the all-time highs remain the technical impulse. Precious metals are trading around the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Silver is just above the 50-day average, while gold and platinum are between the 50- and 200-day averages.

In FX, EURUSD is at 1.1630, GBPUSD at 1.3475, and USDJPY at 159.

UBS sees a global deficit of 520k tonnes of copper in 2026

The coming week will be dominated by US earnings on Wednesday (Dicks, Marvell, Salesforce, Snowflake, and HP) and a heavy slate of US data on Thursday (US Personal Income & Spending (PCE), Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and New Home Sales). And of course, Iran will remain the main focus of attention. Friday is the last trading day of May.

A lot of attention will turn to the big three IPOs: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, with reported target valuations around $1.25 trillion, $840 billion, and $330 billion, respectively, and combined proceeds potentially above $100 billion. SpaceX alone has reportedly been aiming to raise up to $50 billion in a listing at a $1.5 trillion valuation.

Tesla is not SpaceX’s parent, but recent reporting says Tesla itself holds about 18.99 million SpaceX Class A shares, or less than 1% post-offering, after a $2 billion investment earlier in 2026. That means Tesla shareholders have some indirect exposure to SpaceX, but the stake is too small to imply a meaningful “migration” of capital from Tesla into SpaceX at the company level.

Tuesday, May 26

Sweden CPI, US Consumer Confidence
BBVA
Wednesday, May 27
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Dicks, Marvell, Salesforce, Snowflake, HP

Thursday, May 28
EU Consumer Sentiment, US Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods Orders, GDP, New Home Sales
Best Buy, Kohl's, Dell, Costco

Friday, May 29
Japan CPI, Swiss KOF, European CPIs, US Chicago PMI

Monday, June 1
US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending

Tuesday, June 2
EU Inflation, US JOLTS Job Openings