Morning Brew May 22 2025

Good morning,

The high yields are weighing on sentiment causing shares to fall while the Dollar is losing ground despite the higher yields – not a good sign.

As Republicans are looking to pass Trumps Tax bill that would add approximately 10% to US debt, a 20 year bond auction found less demand than hoped. With a rising interest in Bonds , I recorded a Podcast with JEff from Stutz on how to find and trade them: https://youtu.be/V8-SRBvT1es

Japanese longer term yields remain at all time highs, the US ones broke above the key levels: the 10 year is 4.58, the 30 is 5.08.

The Dow ended down 1.9%, the S&P 500 down 1.6%, Nasdaq down 1.4% and the Russel -2.8%.  Target fell more than 5% on weak earnings and outlook while Google rose on the new AI, Apple Tesla and Nvidia gave up ground. Volumes were huge at 19.4 billion. Vix jumps app 15%

Bitcoin rose to  111k, a new all time high, Gold and Silver are 3333 and 33.50, Platinum is 1080

EURUSD is 1.1340, GBPUSD 1.3425, USDJPY 143.20, USDCHF 0.8245.

Elon Musk hinted yesterday he was halting his political donations, a sign he is not very happy with the current administrations treatment of himself

Politics will remain key and any possible verbal intervention in bond markets, verbal or actual will be watched for. International PMI will be monitored closely to see if there is already any fallout from the tariffs. Key are France: 09:15, Germany 09:30, EU at 10:00, UK 10:30, US 15:45.

The US and the EU are negotiating on tariffs after reports surfaced yesterday the huge concessions the US made towards China are setting high expectations.

Trade safely

 Thursday, May 22

- Economic:

  - International PMI

- US: Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales (Apr)

  - Japan: Machine Tool Orders (Apr)

  - Japan: CPI (Apr)[2][5][7]

- Earnings:

  - Ralph Lauren (RL)

  - Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

  - Autodesk (ADSK)

  - Copart (CPRT)

  - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

  - Intuit (INTU)

  - Workday (WDAY)[6]

Friday, May 23

- Economic:

- Japan CPI 

- Germany GDP

- US: New Home Sales (Apr)

  - Canada: Retail Sales (Mar)

  - UK: Retail Sales (Apr)[2][5][7]

- Earnings:

  - Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)