Morning Brew May 19 2026

Good morning

It seems the market is no longer paying much attention to Trump’s announcements on Iran unless there is a tangible result. Elevated oil prices and high yields are keeping risk sentiment on edge. The Dow ended yesterday up 0.3%, the S&P 500 was down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.5%.

Dominion Energy shares jumped 9.4% after NextEra Energy announced it would purchase the company in an all-stock deal valued at about $67 billion. NextEra's shares fell 4.5%. On U.S. exchanges, 20.86 billion shares changed hands compared with 18.36 billion the previous day.

Charu took a look at Berkshire Hathaway’s newest filing:

• Alphabet was the standout addition , with Berkshire more than tripling its stake to around $16.6bn . This appears less like chasing AI hype and more like recognizing that some mega-cap technology platforms now have the cash flow, scale, and moat characteristics that value investors have always favored.
• Berkshire also added new exposure to Delta Air Lines and Macy’s , and increased its position in Lennar, adding a selective cyclical and consumer angle to the portfolio.
• The biggest complete exits were Visa, Mastercard, UnitedHealth, Domino’s, and Aon , while Amazon was also fully exited. The Amazon exit is smaller in dollar terms, but symbolically important given the larger move into Alphabet.
• Chevron was trimmed sharply but not exited , which is an important distinction. This seems more like position sizing than a simple bearish call on energy.
• The broader investor message: Big Tech is increasingly being treated as defensive growth, but the AI trade is also becoming more selective. The next phase may reward companies that can turn AI spending into durable revenues, margins, and free cash flow.

EURUSD is trading at 1.1640, Cable at 1.3410, and USDJPY at 159, leaving the USD Index at 99. Gold is at 4,540, silver at 76.10, and Bitcoin at 76,850.

U.S. President Donald Trumpannounced to have cancelled an attack against Iran after Tehran sent a peace proposal to Washington, and that there was now a "very good chance" of reaching a deal limiting Iran's nuclear program.

Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter on solid exports and consumption, but analysts expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as a result of the fallout from the Middle East conflict.

OpenAI wins against  Elon Musk in court and removes a major obstacle to it`s IPO.

Samsung Electronics and its South Korean labor union began another round talks to break an impasse in negotiations over pay and bonuses and avert the biggest strike in the tech conglomerate's history. A strike would have global implications in an already stressed supply chain.

Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair on Friday

Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit China over the next two days…

Where does this leave us?

Yields remain high and should continue to be the key driver of markets. We are a month away from the next cluster of central bank decisions, which will provide us with more insights. There is currently a 50% chance the Fed will hike this year, and Trump’s desired cuts are off the table.

Oil is likely to remain high until there is a resolution to the Iran war, and traders seem to have given up on any Trump announcements. In my view, this only makes the situation more dangerous.

Tomorrow’s Nvidia earnings and the retailers today through Thursday will be closely watched, not only for their earnings but also for their outlooks.

Tuesday May 19
Japan GDP, UK employment, Canada CPI,
Homedepot, Toll Borthers,

Wednesday May 20

UK CPI, EU Inflation,
Target, Lowes, Nvidia

Thursday May 21

Japan Trade, Global PMI
Nio, Walmart, John Deere, Zoom, Workday,

Friday May 22
Japan CPI, Germany GDP & IFO, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales

Monday May 25
Pentecost