Morning Brew March 7 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Stagflation fears weigh on risk
Risk Off sentiment remains the key market driver as the situation in Ukraine remains dramatic and stagflationary pressure.
Oil jumps massively higher to 130 on the US line up almost 10% from Friday, Gold hits 2000 and Equities are under pressure across board with the Dax down another 3% from Fridays dramatic loss to 12740.
The Dow Jones is trading at 33300, the S&P500 at 4280 and the Nasdaq 100 at 13620.
Bank of America sees the Oil price approaching 200 if Russia is banned from the energy market. We are already at the highest since 2008.
EURUSD fell below 1.09 and GBPUSD to 1.3212. EURCHF is trading at parity for the first time since in infamous SNB Event in 2015. The USD Index rose to above 99 over night to currently trade at 98.85 and 1 month EUR Vol rises to 12.
US 10 year yields fell to below 1.68% to currently trade at 1.73.
Bitcoin trades at 38000.
Economists are not expecting any intervention from the ECB until Q4 according to a Reuters Poll published over the weekend.
Be cautions with your positioning, market volatility is likely to remain high for the time being.
Physically Settled Futures:
FBONH2 will expire 7th March at 13:00 GMT.
FBTPH2, FGBLH2, FGBMH2, FGBSH2, FGBXH2, FOATH2 will expire 7th March at 16:00 GMT.
CH2 will expire 8th March at 10:00 GMT.
GASOILUKMAR22 will expire 8th March at 16:00 GMT.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.