Morning Brew March 31 2026

Good Morning

We are starting to see the impact of the Iran war in the data: German inflation came at 2.7% as expected but after 1.9% in February, today the EU HICP is expected at 2.6%. In the next meeting, ECB BoJ BoE RBA, Denmark, Hungary and India are expected to hike, the US is still expected neutral.

Hiking rates against supply driven inflation is an imperfect tool at best, but the only one central banks have in their arsenal. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave some support to stocks yesterday even if not enough to let markets end positively :  longer-term inflation expectations appear to be holding despite the current energy shock, and the Fed does not yet need to make a decision on how to react to the latest troubles.

Donald Trump stated over night that he was willing to end the war without the Straight of Hormuz being opened which is being appreciated celebrated by markets even it mean admitting defeat by the US.

Initially, we traded risk off in the night as Iran hit a loaded tanker off Dubai, before turning Oil traded a range of USD 5, currently 102 in the US line and 114.60 in the UK, Silver traded a 3 USD range, 72.20 now, Gold is at 4570, Indexes are around 1% higher with the US 500 at 6400, the US 30 456122 an the US tech 100 NAS 23124, GER40 22675 and the Nikkei 51600.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac surged 51% and 47% respectively after Bill Ackman called them "stupidly cheap." In after-hours trading, Textron shares fell 7.6% to $79.42, while Phreesia sank 21% after lowering its full-year revenue forecast.

Yields retreated across the board, likely driven by Powell's comments with US 10`s  are 4.32, EU 3.03, UK 4.93 and Japan 2.35, Swiss ones remain below 0.4%.

We remain fully in headline driven territory and need to maintain caution, due to the easter holiday liquidity is thin over towards the end of the week and any news on the impact of the Iran war can cause markets to swing significantly.

Consider using options to either increase the yield of positions as well as for any speculative positions. Volatility is high but a non-linear risk has value!

Trade safely!!

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Tokyo CPI, UK GDP, France CPI, EU Infaltion, US Consumer Confidence, Quarter end

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Japan Tankan Survey. Global PMI, US Retail Sales.

Thursday, April 2, 2026
US International Trade, Initial Jobles Claims,

Friday, April 3, 2026

China PMI, US Nonfarm Payroll, Good Friday,

Monday April 6 2026

Easter Monday. US ISM

Tuesday April 7 2026

International PMI  Trumps Ultimatum expires.