Morning Brew March 30 2026

Good Morning

This quarter will keep historians busy for a while:

The U.S. made headlines by capturing the President of Venezuela, demanding Greenland from Denmark, and starting a war with Iran. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court declared Trump’s tariff policy illegal, and his approval rating has plunged to  lows— even if only only the fourth lowest ever: behind George Bush during the GFC, Truman in the Korean War, and Nixon in the Watergate era.

Cracks are showing in the AI narrative, with the Magnificent 7 losing 11% in market value. Private credit is under pressure as several funds restrict redemptions.

The war in Iran stands out as the main event of the quarter, with far-reaching implications for markets and geopolitics.

The S&P 500 is down more than 7% since the start of the year, and 9% from its highs. The Dow and Nasdaq are in correction territory, each off by more than 10%. Volatility (VIX) is near 30. The MSCI World Index started the year strong but finished the quarter nearly 5% lower.

The Swiss Market Index (SMI) dropped 5.3%, with Sika and UBS as the biggest detractors, each falling over 20%. Swisscom bucked the trend, gaining 16%.

Oil is the asset of the quarter; crude prices surged 90% in the UK and 75% in the U.S.

Gold reached 5,620, and silver hit 120 before dropping to 4,491 and 70, respectively. Year-over-year, gold is up 43% and silver 104%. Both metals saw significant action—gold found buyers at its 200-day moving average, while silver dropped to half its peak (60k) before rebounding. Investor interest in precious metals remains strong, but the question is whether volatility will persist, fueled by inflation fears and safe haven demand, or whether liquidity needs will trigger more selling.

Crypto started the year on a sour note, with Bitcoin down 25% and Ethereum off by 33%.

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 2% after swinging within a 6% range, currently sitting at 100. EUR/USD is at 1.15, GBP/USD at 1.3260, and USD/JPY is in Bank of Japan intervention territory at 160. The Swiss National Bank may be next to intervene, but EUR/CHF has bounced off lows to 0.9195 amid higher EU rates.

Yields are rising across the board as inflation expectations are repriced. Central banks, having been dovish post-COVID, are unlikely to wait for inflation to cool naturally—they’re expected to hike rates even in the midst of crisis. With inflation driven by supply rather than demand, this could be risky. U.S. 10-year yields are at 4.44% after bottoming at 3.93%; EU yields are at 3.09%, UK at 5% (up from 4.23%), and Japan is at its highest level since the Asian currency crisis of the 1990s. Swiss yields remain subdued at 0.4%.

The big question for Q2 is how long hostilities in Iran will persist. So far, there’s no end in sight—each day the conflict continues is a humanitarian tragedy and increases the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, worsening global shortages.

It’s not just oil and gas at stake, but also sulfur, helium, and fertilizers.

The fallout isn’t limited to energy shortages and inflation—supply chain disruptions may affect industries globally. The helium shortage could impact chip production, and it remains to be seen whether shortages of other parts or ingredients will trigger broader production disruptions.

Expect higher food prices ahead as farmers face rising costs for gas and fertilizers, likely planting less wheat and other crops.

Once the dust settles, opportunities will emerge from rebuilding the Middle East, constructing alternative energy facilities—likely spanning nuclear, solar, wind, and even coal in some areas—and upgrading infrastructure.

Trading perspectives:

Intraday swings are double the norm—if you’re taking speculative positions, be sure to adjust your size accordingly.

For long-term investors, remember that time in the market beats timing the market. Still, consider tools to enhance your yield, such as covered calls or cash-protected puts, which can help you earn more or buy assets at lower prices.

Iran has signaled it’s ready to respond to a U.S. ground offensive, accusing Washington of preparing an attack even as it seeks negotiations. Regional powers are meeting in Pakistan in hopes of ending the conflict.

Tactically we are heading into week 5 of the war and today is the last trading day of the quarter. We are expecting some economic data mainly in the form of PMI from all over the globe, Easter weekend is one of the longest holidays in many countries and the Highlight is that the US releases the Non farm Payroll data on Good Friday

Ole releases his COT review yesterday:

Commodities: https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/2038192386602328178?s='20 https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/2038188854113394846?s='20 https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/2038187331438420432?s='20 https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/2038181547275071798?s='20

Monday, March 30, 2026

Switzerland KOF, Germany CPI, EU Consumer Confidence,

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Tokyo CPI, UK GDP, France CPI, EU Infaltion, US Consumer Confidence, Quarter end

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Japan Tankan Survey. Global PMI, US Retail Sales.

Thursday, April 2, 2026
US International Trade, Initial Jobles Claims,

Friday, April 3, 2026

China PMI, US Nonfarm Payroll, Good Friday,

Monday April 6 2026

Easter Monday. US ISM

Tuesday April 7 2026

International PMI  Trumps Ultimatum expires.