Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Wait and see as oil rises
Good Morning,
Rising oil prices and fading optimism on Ukraine weighs on risk sentiment this morning but moves are relatively small so far. Equities had closed higher yesterday on a lack of concern after the fed hikes and hopes that Russia may prevent a default. US Indexes gained app 1% across the board last night and since then give up 0.3% to 0.6%.
Talks in Ukraine and the question how China will position itself is likely to be the key focus for today. It appears acc to Reuters news that Russia was able to meet a dollar bond coupon payment - avoiding default. President Biden described Putin as a "murderous dictator" is scheduled to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping today and will point out that China "will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia's aggression”, Secretary Blinken stated.
The Bank of Japan maintained its rate and stimulus and sees elevated risks to the economy from Ukraine. USDJPY is little changed at 118.85.
GBPUSD and EURUSD are at 1.3157 and 1.1085, the USD Index at 98.06. 1 month Vol is lower still then yesterday at just below 8. 10 Year US rates are calm at 2.18
Gold and Silver are close to yesterdays levels at 1936 and 25.26, Bitcoin us also uunchanged at 40700.
Oil continues to trade very wildly with Brent 12 USD off the lows this week.
The economic agenda is pretty much empty for today, it will be interesting to see what will drive the market. We could see some profit taking before the weekend to reduce risks.
Trade safely and consider optionality still.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.