Morning Brew March 24 2025

Good morning,

US Equities  ended last week in the green for first time in more than a month . let`s see if that holds. The S&P 500 increased by 0.5% for the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.17%. Friday was volatile, the S&P dropped a full percentage point to recover to just positive. Due to the large expiry, volumes were huge at a whopping 21 billion shares.

FedEx and Nike lowered their forecast and slid 6.45% and 5.46%, Boeing rose on being awarded the contract to build the next fighter jet for the US Military.

Tesla could rise more than 5% and is currently trading with an average daily move or USD – 18 or 7% in the 10 day ATR, the ATR measures the full daily swing and then averages reflecting the degree of price movement or fluctuation. It is a good indication of what a trader or investor would typically make or lose on any given day.  Tesla is likely to remain in the spotlight as the stock is under pressure for falling sales, recalls and other business related news but Elon Musk’s political exposure is also cause for concern for some and a positive factor for others.

Hints the tariffs may be narrower than feared boost optimism and this morning futures are app 0.5% higher across the globe.

The USD Index rose on Friday, closing the week at 104.15. EURUSD fell to 1.0814, GBPUSD 1.2918 and USDJPY 149.31. Gold and Silver traded lower and in great swings: Silvers daily range was almost a full Dollar and ended just north of the 33, gold ad a low at 2999 and a high of 3047 , it closed smack in eh middle at 3024. This morning we are 33.20 and 3025.

According to Reuters News, the ECB is assessing if the US can be relied on to provide sufficient dollars in times of markets stress.

Key factors to watch besides economic events:

Tariffs We are a little more than a week away from the planned start of many US tariffs by the US still unclear if they will go into effect or not. There was quite vocal criticism of DJt as he pro0moted his meme coin while leaving key political issues unaddressed.

In the US, there are estimates that DOGE`s actions within the IRS could cause tax revenue to decline by 10%

Canada announced a snap election as Carney says Canadians facing most significant crisis of their lifetime.

Middle East :The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seems increasingly fragile

The Mayor of Istanbul is accused of terrorism and corruption and has been jailed until th trial , thousands protest in Istanbul and IzmirThe Turkish supervisor banned short selling of equities , and also eased share buyback limitations and equity ratio requirements until April 25.

Ukraine: Talks continue but a major advance in the talks remains missing.

After the passage of the increases spending limits Germany , plans on the how and when will be key.

Monday, March 24

• Flash PMI Data (US, EU, UK Japan, ): Key indicators of manufacturing and service sector performance[5].
• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index: Insights into German business sentiment[5].

Tuesday, March 25

• US New Home Sales (February):A key housing market indicator[6].
• EU New Car Registrations (YoY) Reflecting consumer demand trends in Europe[

Wednesday, March 26

• Japan PPI – Producer Prices
• Australia CPI :Cosumer Prices
• UK Inflation Data (February): Important for gauging price pressures and monetary policy[5].
• US Durable Goods Orders (February):A measure of industrial activity and investment trends[5][6].

Thursday, March 27

• US -GDP Final Reading (Q4 2024):** An update on economic growth

Friday, March 28**

• Germany Unemployment Rate: Labor market health in Europe’s largest economy[5].
• UK GDP
• France Inflation
• Japan Inflation Data: Critical for Bank of Japan policy outlook[7].
• US Core PCE Price Index (February) The Fed's preferred inflation gauge-