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Morning Brew June 30 2026
Summary: Heading to the second half of the year
Good Mornign
Key things to watch:
- Gold has developed a death cross after falling back below 4,000.
- The yen is trading near a 40-year low against the U.S. dollar, keeping intervention risk firmly on the radar.
- Half-year and month-end flows could exaggerate market moves today.
- China’s PMI beat expectations and returned to expansion.
- The ECB sounded more dovish, making tomorrow’s HICP print even more important.
U.S. equities rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.16% to 7,439.26, the Nasdaq Composite rising 2.04% to 25,812.52, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.57% to 52,172.69. SpaceX jumped 7.2% after Nasdaq said the newly listed company will be added to the Nasdaq 100 on July 7. RBC also raised its 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,150 from 7,900, adding to the constructive equity tone.
Asian markets joined the rally into quarter-end. Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.6% and is on track for a record quarterly rise of more than 38%. South Korea’s chipmaker-driven Kospi rose 3% and is set for an extraordinary second-quarter gain of nearly 71%, having more than doubled year-to-date.
The stronger U.S. dollar remains a key market driver. It has pushed gold toward its largest quarterly decline in more than a decade, while the yen briefly touched a four-decade low around 162.41 per dollar. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama repeated that authorities are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves at any time, keeping intervention risk high.
The USD Index is stable around 101.40, with EUR/USD at 1.1385, USD/JPY at 162.25, and GBP/USD at 1.3230. Gold and silver remain worth watching closely. Gold has fallen back below the 4,000 level and has formed a death cross, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average.
The ECB may reconsider the currently expected September hike as inflation pressure eases. That makes tomorrow’s HICP release more important than usual, as it could shape the near-term policy narrative.
Expect final position adjustments into half-year and month-end. FX should remain in focus, with the ECB’s tone potentially shifting and Japan still expected to intervene if yen weakness becomes disorderly. Precious metals may remain volatile as technical pressure, dollar strength, and positioning collide.
Trade safely!
- Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Swiss KOF , DE Unemployment and Inflation U.S. Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Openings, Dallas Fed Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Nike, Constellation Brands - Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Global Manufacturing PMI, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, ADP Employment Report - Thursday, July 2, 2026
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders; U.S. bond market early close ahead of Independence Day - Friday, July 3, 2026
U.S. Independence Day observed — U.S. equity markets closed; liquidity likely thin in Europe