Morning Brew June 26 2026

Good morning.

Key things to watch:

Risk sentiment is weaker this morning, driven by a combination of renewed Middle East tension, pressure in Asia, and fresh headlines from the technology sector.

• Middle East tension has flared up again after a cargo ship was reportedly hit by a projectile.
• OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 unless investors accept a lower valuation than the targeted $1 trillion.
• Apple is raising prices for selected iPads and MacBooks to offset higher memory and storage-chip costs.
• Samsung is expected to announce a decade-long investment plan worth about $648 billion on Monday.

Asia is under pressure, with Japan’s Nikkei down nearly 5% and South Korea’s KOSPI down around 8%. Silver has given up about 2%, while Western index futures are roughly 1% lower.

Middle East tensions have flared up again after a cargo ship was reportedly hit by a projectile. The UN is now halting its escort operation, which adds a layer of uncertainty

The New York Times reports that OpenAI’s advisers suggested waiting until 2027 to go public with a $1 trillion valuation, or accepting a lower valuation for a quicker listing. CEO Sam Altman reportedly responded that moving away from the trillion-dollar target was a non-starter.

Apple shares fell 6.1% overnight after the company announced price increases for selected iPads and MacBooks to offset the rising cost of memory and storage chips. The MacBook Air with 512GB of storage rose to $1,299 from $1,099, while the entry-level iPad moved from $599 to $699. The price hikes are meaningful for Apple, but computers and phone hardware carry a relatively small weight in the inflation basket, so this is unlikely to become a major inflation driver on its own.

Samsung Group is expected to unveil a sweeping decade-long investment plan on Monday, pledging around 1,000 trillion won, or roughly $648 billion, to support South Korea’s next growth cycle. The plan may include a 300 trillion won push to build chip factories in the country’s southwest, according to media reports.

Yesterday’s U.S. inflation data did not come in hotter than feared, which markets interpreted as dovish at the margin. PCE came in at 4.1%, in line with expectations, while core PCE was 3.4%. These numbers are still far too high to discuss anything other than rate hikes, but traders had clearly feared an even worse outcome. GDP also pointed to continued strength.

Polestar said on Thursday that the Trump administration is forcing the electric-vehicle maker to stop selling vehicles in the United States from 2027.

Micron soared 15.7% after earnings and guidance beat Wall Street estimates. Still, concerns around debt-backed hyperscaler spending and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve continue to weigh on the broader market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.2% and remains on track for its strongest quarter on record.

U.S. yields are stable, and the implied year-end rate has not crossed 4%. The USD Index is giving up a little ground but remains above 101, currently around 101.40. EUR/USD is at 1.1375, the yen remains weak at 161.65, and GBP/USD is at 1.32. Gold is hovering around 4,000, while silver is lower at 56.30.

Markets remain nervous, and there are no major scheduled releases today. Trade carefully as we head into half-year and month-end, where positioning adjustments can easily exaggerate moves.

There is a lot of uncertainty about the underlying market driver going forward will the strong USD and AI also dominate the start of the second semester? 

Trade safely.

• Friday, June 26, 2026
  U.S. Advanced Goods Trade Balance, University of Michigan Sentiment Final, Kansas City Fed Services Activity
• Monday June 29 2026
  EU Consumer Confidence