Morning Brew June 10 2026

Good morning.

Will CPI come in above 4%? Violence in the Middle East has flared up again, adding to already elevated uncertainty.

According to a U.S. official, a U.S. helicopter was brought down by a one-way Iranian attack drone, prompting the U.S. to retaliate against more than 20 targets.

Trump wrote on social media that Iran had shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz overnight and vowed to respond.

Today’s U.S. CPI release is a key event, with headline inflation expected at 4.2% and core inflation at 2.9%. This makes next week’s FOMC meeting even more important.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave rates unchanged today, with a probability above 90%.

Overall, markets remain nervous and unsure where to focus:

• AI and technology
• Inflation and central banks
• The Middle East and related supply-chain risks

After a volatile session, the Dow closed up 0.2%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq lost 1%. At its lows, the Nasdaq had been down 4% before recovering.

Technology stocks resumed Friday’s selloff after Monday’s rebound. The S&P 500 technology index fell more than 4% before paring losses, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped as much as 8.6% after briefly rising 3% early in the session. The tech index ended 1.8% lower, and the semiconductor index closed down 1.9%. U.S. trading volume reached 24.77 billion shares, above the roughly 20 billion average.

The USD Index is steady at 1.1545. GBPUSD is at 1.3380 and USDJPY at 160.35, EURCHHF has breached the 0.92.  Gold and silver remain weak at 4,175 and 63.80, while Bitcoin is trading around 61k.

Oil is trading at 88.40 in the U.S. and 81.62 in the U.K.

China’s producer prices rose for a third consecutive month in May, reaching their highest level since July 2022.
US existing home sales rose 3.2% to an annualized 4.17 million, beating expectations despite high mortgage rates. Gains were strongest in the Midwest and South, modest in the Northeast, and flat in the West. Inventory rose 3.3% to a 10-month high, equal to 4.5 months of supply.
The US trade deficit narrowed to $55.9 billion in April from $56.6 billion, also beating expectations. Exports rose 2.6% to a record $327.1 billion, led by capital goods, industrial supplies, and consumer goods, while services slipped. Imports increased 2.0% to $383.0 billion, driven by higher capital goods and services purchases.
Japan’s producer prices rose 6.3% year-on-year in May, up from 5.3% and above the 5.5% forecast. This was the fastest increase since March 2023, driven by higher energy costs. Month-on-month, prices rose 0.9%, down from April’s revised 2.8%.

Trade safely.

Wednesday, June 10

China rate decision, CPI & PPI, U.S. CPI, Bank of Canada rate decision

Thursday, June 11
U.S. PPI, ECB rate decision

Friday, June 12
UK industrial production, UK GDP, U.S. Michigan sentiment, SpaceX IPO