Morning Brew January 8 2025

Good morning,

We got a good taste yesterday of what to expect from the incoming Trump administration as Donald Trump held a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate. He reiterated the idea that Canada should become the 51st state of America and also that Greenland should be US American, he also looks to control the Panama canal. He did not exclude the possibility of the use of military power to achieve his goal. Denmark as well as Canada rejected the ideas.

He reinforced a few that NATO members should do more in terms of military spending and is looking at a 5% of GDP not 2% of GDP.  We can certainly expect to be flabbergasted by Team Trump.

In markets, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI came higher than expected and US job openings were also better than  expected. This caused US Yields to edge higher towards the 4.7% mark and boosted the US dollar while weighing on equities.

The Dow lost  0.4% the S&P 1.1 and the NASDAQ 1.9% the most noteworthy stocks were Tesla at -4% and Nvidia at -6% . Micron rose against the trend as the company was said to provide memory  chips for the new Nvidia Blackwell generation. Volume on US exchanges was huge at more than 20 billion shares traded .

At the moment he was 10 years yields are trading at 4.67% the US dollar index was pulled up to 108,63 the Euro dropped back below 104 to trade at 103.50,  GBPUSD fell below 125 again to trade at 124.85 and the Japanese trading at 158. Gold and silver are unfazed by the high interest rate and are trading at 2650 and 30.10. Platinum could gain in the last couple of days and is at 951.  Bitcoin could not hold above the hundred thousand and has lost almost 5% to trade at 95,300

This morning, German industrial orders disappointed massively at -5.4% against an expectation of zero. This is a disastrous result

We are expecting the EU consumer confidence and US initial jobless claims as well as the ADP employment index today, in the evening the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be released.

In the night, we are expecting the Chinese producer and consumer price indexes expected at -2.4 and 0.1% respectively. This will be a very important signal for the Chinese economy.

Please remember that tomorrow is a US market holiday due to the Memorial service for Jimmy Carter.

Wednesday:

• Data: AU CPI, DE Industrial Orders, EU Consumer Confidence US Initial Jobless Claims
• Fed Minutes release, Waller speaks

Thursday:

• Data: US Market Holiday for Jimmy Carters Memorial Service EU Retail Sales, China CPI PPI, DE Industrial Production,
• Barkin, Schmid, and Bowman speak, Space with Elon Musk and Alice Weidel

Friday:

• Data: Switzerland Unemployment Rate, Norway & Denmark CPI, US Nonfarm Payroll, University of Michigan Sentiment Preliminary