Morning Brew January 7 2026

Good Morning

President Donald Trump has announced plans to sell Venezuelan oil as the U.S. signals it is engaged in talks with Caracas. At the same time, the White House confirmed that Trump is again exploring options for acquiring Greenland—including potential military involvement—reviving his ambition to secure the strategically important island despite objections from European partners. At a Ukraine conference in Paris, several countries voiced strong support for Ukraine.

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, whose term ends later this month, commented that aggressive interest rate cuts will be needed this year to keep economic momentum intact.

Equity markets were positive, with the S&P 500 up 0.62%, the Nasdaq up 0.65%, and the Dow rising 0.99%. Moderna gained nearly 11% after BofA Global Research raised its price target. On the other hand, remarks by Nvidia’s Huang about chip efficiency raised concerns around demand for data‑center cooling systems, and his comments on Nvidia’s entry into the self‑driving car market weighed on Tesla, which fell 3.8%. Goldman Sachs continued to dominate global dealmaking in 2025.

Precious metals rose sharply yesterday, nearing all‑time highs; however, a notable pullback followed this morning, which was not unexpected. Silver is down 3.2% at 78.60, platinum is down 6.8% at 2275, and gold has eased 1% to 4445. To build further momentum, prices would need to break above their recent highs—though a period of pause or consolidation remains entirely possible. Consider using options to manage risk and exposure.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue rulings on key tariff‑related cases on Friday. No specific timing or details have been provided, and any unexpected outcome could have major implications.

Ole Comments on PM: It’s still a low volatility market, but some interesting new developments as USD rally reverses and AUD and SEK test compelling levels. The shock US extraction of now former Venezuelan president Maduro had no apparent FX angle, as not even oil prices could really decide what to do with this news after chopping around. And FX is not in focus in general, as the fresh surge in risk sentiment in equity markets and new surge in metals prices steal the headlines. The latter, together with solid CNH strength and the rate outlook for Australia’s RBA are likely helping drive the Aussie higher here, and AUD has posted new highs versus all of the G3 currencies here after AUDUSD finally tried clearing 0.6700+ with a bit more oomph in Asia’s Tuesday session. We’ll need the Australia November CPI release early in the Wednesday session in Asia for confirmation that something bigger is afoot after AUDUSD’s long walk in rangebound desert. (more on AUDUSD in chart discussion below.)

• Precious metals have started 2026 strongly, rebounding from a modest year‑end correction as macro and structural tailwinds remain intact.
• Gold continues to draw support from central‑bank and investment demand amid fiscal, currency, and rate concerns, while silver and platinum are further underpinned by tight supply and robust industrial demand.
• Heightened geopolitical tensions add a renewed risk premium, reinforcing the role of hard assets as portfolio hedges.
• In the near term, annual commodity index rebalancing from 8 January poses a technical headwind for gold and silver, raising the risk of short‑term volatility without altering the broader outlook

John Published his first FX Outlook of the year:

It’s still a low volatility market, but some interesting new developments as USD rally reverses and AUD and SEK test compelling levels. The shock US extraction of now former Venezuelan president Maduro had no apparent FX angle, as not even oil prices could really decide what to do with this news after chopping around. And FX is not in focus in general, as the fresh surge in risk sentiment in equity markets and new surge in metals prices steal the headlines. The latter, together with solid CNH strength and the rate outlook for Australia’s RBA are likely helping drive the Aussie higher here, and AUD has posted new highs versus all of the G3 currencies here after AUDUSD finally tried clearing 0.6700+ with a bit more oomph in Asia’s Tuesday session. We’ll need the Australia November CPI release early in the Wednesday session in Asia for confirmation that something bigger is afoot after AUDUSD’s long walk in rangebound desert. (more on AUDUSD in chart discussion below.)

Ruben Took a look at the Investor outlook for Equities:

AI keeps the engine running, even as the road gets bumpier

The optimistic view for 2026 is simple: investment stays strong, companies keep finding productivity gains, and inflation cools slowly enough for interest rates to drift lower over time. In that world, equities can still do fine, even if returns look less spectacular than the last sprint.

BlackRock’s Investment Institute leans into this “investment-led growth” idea. The point is not that AI is magic. The point is that AI is capital-hungry. It pulls forward spending on data centres, semiconductors, and networks, which supports activity even if the labour market cools.

Goldman Sachs’ 2026 outlook hub makes the same idea feel more grounded: base cases tend to be “sturdy growth” rather than boom-or-bust drama. That matters for long-term investors because steady growth usually gives companies time to grow earnings, and earnings are the long-term fuel for share prices.

Here is the key nuance for 2026: markets can be “right” about AI and still be “too excited” about the price they pay for it. Valuation is just the price tag on future hopes. If the price tag gets silly, even good news can disappoint.

Trade safely!!

Date      Country               Event

7-Jan     DE          Unemployment

7-Jan     EU          Inflation

8-Jan     DE          Industrial Orders

8-Jan     EU          Unemployment Rate

8-Jan     US          Initial Jobless claims, International Trade

9-Jan     China   PPI, CPI

9-Jan     US          Nonfarm Payrolls, University of Michigan

13-Jan  US          CPI

14-Jan  US          PPI, Existing Home Sales

14-Jan  China   Trade Data

15-Jan  UK          GDP

15-Jan  US          Initial Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims

16-Jan  DE          Inflation

19-Jan  China Retail Sales, GDP, Urban Investment

19-Jan  CA          PMI

19-Jan  US          Market Holiday

20-Jan  China   Rate Decision

20-Jan  UK          Employment

20-Jan  DE          ZEW

21-Jan  UK          CPI

22-Jan  US          GDP

22-Jan  AU          CPI

23-Jan  Japan    Rate Deecision, CPI

23-Jan  UK          Retail Sales

23-Jan  US          PMI&University of Michigan

26-Jan  US          Durable Goods

27-Jan  US          Consumer Confidence

28-Jan  AU          CPI

28-Jan  Canada               Rate Decision

28-Jan  US          Rate Decision

29-Jan  US          PCE

30-Jan  Japan    CPI

30-Jan  Switzerland       KOF

30-Jan  EU          GDP, Consumer Confidence.